Pretty quiet weekend for us...the main issue will be cloud cover and its impact on highs/lows. Clouds will be more common along and east of I-65 ...clearing more to the west. But overall---a nice weekend with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.
So let's get right to the storm for next week.
The models are getting better and better on the target landfall----New Jersey. But the wind field on this one will be so huge that everyone in the northeast will feel the impacts in a big way. Location wise---anywhere north and east of the center of the low will suffer the most with a powerful S/SE wind that will lead to beach erosion, coastal flooding, very heavy rain. This will be the zone of most damage.
To the west and southwest of low ...the winds will be out of the NW/W. Still just as powerful, but the direction will help spare some of the coastal issues being an offshore wind. Flooding a huge issue here too.
Further on the SW side...the cold front will have been merged, so that is where the heavy snow will fall. PA/WVA/VA/east KY.
Here is the latest postion with the low Mon night. About 956-960 mb...same as the Superstorm of 1993..but stronger than the 972 mb low of the "Perfect Storm" in 1991.
Some of the models do take it lower than 956 mb...and that will have to be watched carefully. Strongest to hit the area in modern times was 938 mb low/hurricane in....1938.
Here are the wind speeds----you can see that magenta color where winds will be about 100 mph just above the surface. But powerful winds all over the place with this large low.
As the low retrogrades toward western PA. The strong winds push closer to us on Tuesday. Gusts over 35 mph would be possible...especially east of I 65.
Snow wise---- GFS points out the risk for 1-2 feet of snow in that SW section of this storm.
When the storm backs up closer to KY Tue/Wed...we may see a rain/snow mix backing up to about Louisville. Timing of day will play of role in type...if daytime---mostly light rain mixed with snow...nighttime---snow would be more likely.
At this point, we are not forecasting for anything to stick as surface temps will struggle to reach 32...and the ground is warm. Heavy snow would be the only exception to this rule that can overcome the above---but snow rates look very light here so no concerns.
Make sure to check out the video blog on our WAVE 3 WEATHER FACEBOOK PAGE that breaks down the snow chances a bit more.
Quiet this weekend with clouds the main issue. Drizzle/shower risk east of I 65. The big storm hits Monday...we will start to feel some impacts from this storm by Tuesday/Wednesday. Impacts being gusty winds and a small chance for some light rain/snow ...mainly north/east of the Louisville area.
Keep in mind, this is a very dynamic storm and we pretty much have nothing to compare it to model wise---so that makes this forecast even tougher. Stay tuned and we will keep you updated as much as we can as I know many of you are concerned about the storm with friends/family in that area...and impacts locally. We appreciate your trust in us!!
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