Weather Blog

another winter forecast

Most of us have issued our winter outlooks and so it is now my turn. Long range forecasting is as much an art as it is a science. We all have a bias of some kind whether it be warm or cold, lots of snow or little snow. If we look hard enough we can find evidence to support our forecast. I've seen a couple of cold and snowy projections. Now you will see one that is a little different.

Winter Outlook for December 2012- February 2013

Prepared by: Meteorologist Andy Weingarten

Introduction:

Most of the country was warmer than normal this summer and there were large areas of drought to help it along. Drought conditions have improved significantly this fall and that has led to some downward trend in temperature anomalies the past 2 months. This rain largely occurred without impact from the tropics. This will be the second winter to use the new 1981-2010 30 year baseline for normal temperatures. These are in many cases warmer than the 1971-2000 normal. In theory it will be easier to get below normal than in past winters, but it did not result in that last year which was quite warm. El Nino has been predicted to be a driver this winter, but its development has not been as robust as expected.  

I issued a 20 page outlook for my private clients, much too long to bring here. So, I will simply show my highlights. The El Nino has not developed as expected earlier this year. That would have been a major bullish signal for a cold winter extending what has been a cool Autumn. The average of all El Nino forecasts here show a neutral state.

View this photo

Most forecasters love to look at the NAO/AO in the winter. These are pressure patterns in the Atlantic which indicate things such as wind direction and speed of movement of large systems. In the negative phase in winter it is often cold and snowy. We have been in a negative phase much of the fall and may continue a while longer but clearly December is not starting cold. In fact, it looks warm the next two weeks. Here is the NAO/AO outlook and look back. Keep in mind predictions for this are not reliable more than a week or two out.

   
 Despite the consistently negative values , December will start warm here.     

 

 Finally many meteorologists use an analog method. That means look at years past with similar characteristics to get a glimpse of the future. There are many numerical values one can use. I normally use the QBO and the PDO.    

    The first one is known as the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO). This is a measurement of wind direction in the Tropical Pacific. These winds have been from the east consistently over the last two years representing a negative phase. There is a chart of these measurements located at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/qbo.data. This consistency made it easier to find recent 1-2 year periods that have been consistently negative. I found a number of years that qualified. Keep in mind that any analog method used only assumes that piece of data as a factor. It is why they often do not play a big role in my forecast preparation unless I think it is a main driver. Here is what those winters look like.    

         

The second analog is called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This is a Northern Pacific Sea surface measurement. It has similarities to the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon but on a longer time scale. Most observations indicate long term we are in a decade of negative phase indicative of colder temperatures. The index has also been weakly negative for the last two years. I looked for years with similar trends and came up with the following.

If you can find a match between the two that can lend more confidence to the methodology. I found a match the winter of 1999 that is similar to both. Manyof you will not like the result.

That is a warm winter folks! I am not going as warm as last years 4.3 above normal or as snowless as the 7" we saw. But I am thinking 2-3 above normal and 12-15 inches of snow. I do not expect to see frequent winter storms, but in our area the normal snow for a winter is around 20". Two or three modest events and a handful of the 1" snows we commonly see would be enough to get to my forecast.

                                                                    

  

    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1. Sea Surface Temperatures… This is becoming a more useful tool in seasonal forecasting and not just in the tropical Pacific with respect to ENSO. If El Nino were developing we would see a lot more warm temperatures off the South American coastline near the equator. There is some, but the warmer anomalies are north between 30 and 40 N latitude and close to the U.S. coastlines. The Atlantic in particular is warm which may make it very difficult for the east coast to see a below normal winter, but easier over the Plains.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The second analog is called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This is a Northern Pacific Sea surface measurement. It has similarities to the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon but on a longer time scale. Most observations indicate long term we are in a decade of negative phase indicative of colder temperatures. The index has also been weakly negative for the last two years. I looked for years with similar trends and came up with the following.

 

 

There are a number of changes here, less cold and farther east. If I can find a match between these, that is always helpful and this year I did. The 98-99 winter shows up in both and looked like this.

 

 

 

Now that was a warm winter!

 

Finally I show last years’ winter map which was warmer than normal for a large part of the country.

 

 

 

 

 

6... Time to draw some conclusions:

 

There is more than average uncertainty in my outlook this year. There are some elements to suggest going cold such as the potential for more frequent negative NAO/AO signatures and the lack of the forecasted El Nino. Some of the global models also project some cold. On the other hand sea surface temperatures and analog methods are suggestive of another warm winter. I would think it would be unlikely to see the type of warmth we had last year but then the best analog year I found was even warmer. The El Nino could have been the pattern changer and without it there are a lot of similarities globally to last year. Given that, I am leaning warm. I am actually most confident this winter on the warmth in the NE and the slight chill in the NW. Here is an approximation of what I think winter 2012-13 will look like.

 

 

 

 

 

 

HEY SNOW LOVERS....

Check out this story! I may have teased you just a bit...no snow is expected in our area for at least the next seven days (sorry snow lovers) but if you have any plans to travel to California or know someone that lives there...BUCKLE UP! One of the biggest, if not the biggest, snow storm in U.S history is underway.

Mount Shasta in California may receive up to 218 inches of snow through the weekend - holy cow! The article below from The Weather Channel is mind blowing. What are the biggest snow storms you remember in Kentuckiana? Maybe this Winter we'll see a good one...not sure how many of you would want 218 inches though :)

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 MOUNT SHASTA SNOW STORM

If anyone lived on the summit of California's Mount Shasta, they'd need a mighty big shovel to dig out of the snowstorm that will bury the mountain in astronomical amounts of snow through the weekend -- amounts that could flirt with world records.

The Thursday morning National Weather Service summit forecast for Shasta predicted an incredible 33 to 39 inches of snow -- just for Thursday alone.

(By comparison, Atlanta, Ga., has reported 38.9 inches of snow since March 1, 1989 -- a period of over 23 years.)

But it gets crazier.

Add in another 37 to 43 inches of snow Thursday night, and additional amounts ranging from  21 to 35 inches every 12 hours through Saturday night, plus a light dusting of 11 to 17 inches on Sunday...

...and you get a storm total of 176 inches.  On the low end.

Add up the high end of the numbers and you get a forecast maximum of 218 inches of snow in four days!

How would that kind of four-day snow total stack up?  Consider these major all-time snowfall records that would be broken with a 200-inch snowfall:

• According to Weather Underground, the world record for a single snowstorm is 189 inches in six days -- guess where? Mount Shasta Ski Bowl in February 1959.
• The National Climatic Data Center says California's heaviest four-day snowstorm was 145 inches at the Sierra-at-Tahoe Ski Resort near Echo Summit in March-April 1982.
• The U.S. four-day snow record is 163 inches at Thompson Pass, Alaska, in December 1955.

If those numbers seem a little too hard to wrap your mind around, consider this:

• The snowiest season on record in snowy Syracuse, N.Y., only yielded 192.1 inches of snow in 1992-93.
• If the tallest living player in NBA history, Gheorghe Muresan, were to balance a life-size wax statue of himself on his head, two feet of snow would bury the top of the statue.
• The minimum clearance for an interstate overpass in rural areas is 16 feet. A 218-inch snow depth would cover the highway up to the bottom of the overpass, with 26 inches of snow on top of that.

Of course, if official records are to be broken, this extreme snow will have to fall at a location where someone can measure it. Today's Mount Shasta Ski Park tops out just above 6,500 feet in elevation, much lower than the old Ski Bowl was in 1959, and with this storm carrying so much warm air, snowfall amounts are likely to drop tremendously by the time you get down to that elevation.

Nobody lives on Mount Shasta's summit, and we hope nobody is foolish enough to climb the 14,179-foot mountain for a few days, so we may never know exactly how much snow this storm ends up dumping. 

For the surrounding terrain, which is nearly 10,000 feet lower than the summit, this will be a massive rain storm with the potential for over a foot of rain.

INTERESTING ARTICLE ON CLIMATE CHANGE

CLIMATE CHANGE...Is a big topic of discussion, not only among Meteorologists but people in general. I read this article and found it interesting...I thought I'd share it with all of you. What are your thoughts on climate change? This article is from The Weather Channel. Enjoy.

WASHINGTON - Scientists who study the Arctic say they're worried that nations meeting this week to set targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions aren't adequately considering how much carbon dioxide and methane could be released from the world's rapidly thawing permafrost.

Researchers have known the permafrost is warming for some time, but they've only recently begun to accurately measure just how much carbon is in the Earth's frozen regions. And they're only beginning to understand the consequences of such unanticipated greenhouse gas emissions, which weren't factored into the manmade emissions targets world leaders are considering this week at the United Nations climate talks in Doha, Qatar.

Permafrost, ground that stays frozen for at least two years in a row, stores vast amounts of decayed plant matter. As the Earth warms, that frozen organic matter thaws and is released in the former of carbon dioxide or, more troublingly, methane. Global warming is creating a feedback loop _ as the Earth warms, higher temperatures put the permafrost at greater risk. And melting permafrost releases the very greenhouse gases that contribute to the Earth's warming.

As they learn more about the carbon in permafrost, scientists say the possible emissions must be factored into climate talks. A report issued this week by the U.N. Environment Program urges the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to assess the impact of permafrost carbon dioxide and methane emissions. The report relies heavily on research done in Alaska by scientists with the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado and the University of Alaska-Fairbanks.

(MORE: U.S. Defends 'Enormous' Climate Change Efforts at UN Talks)

"The message is that policymakers have to be aware of the possible consequences of an already changing world," said Vladimir Romanovsky of the University of Alaska-Fairbanks. "And these kinds of concerns should be included in any kind of further plans to mitigate and adapt to these changes. We need to know more about any changes in permafrost in a more robust way to have good information to build our decisions."

Their research shows that the Earth's permafrost contains 1,700 gigatons of carbon as frozen organic matter. That's twice the carbon currently in the atmosphere.

“Permafrost is one of the keys to the planet's future...Its potential impact on the climate, ecosystems and infrastructure has been neglected for too long.” Achim Steiner, Executive Director of the U.N. Environment Program

"Permafrost is one of the keys to the planet's future, because it contains large stores of frozen organic matter that, if thawed and released into the atmosphere, would amplify current global warming and propel us to a warmer world," Achim Steiner, executive director of the U.N. Environment Program, said in a news release. "Its potential impact on the climate, ecosystems and infrastructure has been neglected for too long."

The report also recommended that nations with extensive permafrost _ the United States, Canada, China and Russia _ create national monitoring networks and make plans to mitigate the risks of thawing permafrost.

"The infrastructure we have now is not adequate to monitor future changes in permafrost," Kevin Schaefer, a research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center and the report's lead author, said in a news release. "We need to greatly expand our current networks to monitor permafrost, which requires direct investment of money and resources by individual countries."

Policymakers also will need to plan to protect communities in the most vulnerable regions, Schaefer said, because thawing permafrost has consequences beyond the unexpected emissions that are warming the Earth.

Homes, businesses, roads, and oil and gas infrastructure in Alaska and other parts of the far north were built on ground that stayed frozen. If the ground thaws, they could collapse. Already, some villages in Alaska have had to contend with the changing conditions

 

THE WARM UP IS COMING!

COLD MORNING – CHILLY AFTERNOON

What a morning! Hopefully you didn’t forget the jacket at home as temperatures dropped quickly under clear skies. For some, the coldest temperatures of the season occurred. Teens were recorded from Meade County near Brandenburg to McLean County) just West of out viewing area near Calhoun. Hardinsburg in Breckinridge County dipped to 20 degrees and Shelbyville in Shelby County dipped to 21 degrees. Bottom line, it was COLD for all of Kentuckiana this morning and we’ll have to fight through another cold and frosty morning until warmer weather returns, and shows it’s face in a big way. An area of high pressure is the culprit for the clearing skies, which allows temperatures to fall quickly overnight and depending on the position of the high prohibits temperatures in the afternoon from warming to their full potential despite full sun. This morning and this afternoon were no exception as temperatures today will top out in the mid to upper 40s with a few 50 degree readings possible.

 

 

This area of high pressure that is dictating how much sunshine we see and how warm/cold temperatures are will slowly shift Eastward. As this occurs, winds will make a shift out of the South which will be our warming wind. Combined with sunshine, the Southerly winds will kick start our warmer weather pattern over the next few days.

WITH THE WARM UP…

Comes the bad news for snow lovers. While much of the Pacific Northwest has a decent snow pack, nationwide there’s not much snow cover, and there’s nothing in Kentuckiana. Here’s a look at snow cover over the past two weeks…notice much of the lower 48 is high and dry, free from snow.

 
Speaking of snow…Winter is getting close. The official start to Winter is on Friday December 21^st. Any snow lovers out there? :)

(11/27) Full Moon, Frost & Folklore! Oh My!

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FULL MOON
The full November Moon will occur at 9:46 AM Wednesday.
It's known as the Full Frost or the Full Beaver Moon.
Sorta wishing I lived on the moon after this week... I'd only weigh about 35 pounds.
How much would you weigh on the moon?  Multiply your weight by 0.165.
Thanks for Michael Montgomery for sharing this awesome photo.

FROST WILL FORM
With the boundary layer mixed we will likely see frost from overnight.  Temperatures already dipped well below freezing across the area.  At 9:00 PM temperatures were in the mid 20s in Corydon, Jeffersonville, Paoli, Brownstown & North Vernon, IN -- and Jeffersontown & Brandenburg, KY.  Dew points are in the mid to upper 20s! 

FORECAST DISCUSSION
A large area of high pressure stretching from lower Michigan to central Texas will slide east over the next couple of days.  In the short-term this will provide chilly overnight lows.  As the high pressure slides east we'll see southerly winds help to warm us up.  We're back into the 60s by the weekend with our progressive warm-up.  An upper level disturbance will enter the picture by Saturday and that's when we'll see a few showers possible. In the meantime we're in for one of the coldest nights of the season so far.  The coldest to date is 24° which occured this past Saturday morning.  Our forecast for tonight is in the mid to upper 20s in the city and near 20 in the suburbs.

NATIONWIDE (no not the insurance)
The first in a series of storms will impact the area overnight into Wednesday. This will be a quick moving system bringing 0.5 to 2 inches of rainfall with local amounts up to 3 inches in favored areas. Winds will gust 40 to 45 mph along the immediate coastal headlands and over ridges. Snow levels will be around 4500 feet over eastern Trinity county with several inches of snow possible above 5000 feet. A second system will bring stronger and potentially damaging winds to the coast on Thursday with another period of heavy rain. Localized urban and small streams flooding is possible as the front moves through. Yet another storm is projected to impact northwest California on Friday with more strong winds and heavy rain. Total rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches are expected through Sunday with localized amounts well over a foot in the King Range and over South Fork Mountain. (courtesy: National Weather Service)

HAVE YOU NOTICED
Trees are shedding their leaves later than usual?  Scientists examined changes in the growing season over the Northern Hemisphere during 1982 to 2008 and found that end of the growing season has shifted to later in the year. Scientists regard changes in the growing season as an important indicator of the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.

FOLKLORE
Nights with moonlight have the hardest frosts
A full moon eats clouds
Clear moon, frost soon
*credit John Belski - Backyard Weather Folklore


ANGEL TREE UPDATE

KENTUCKY
1600 adopted thru today
400 today
10,400 remaining

INDIANA
2,100 remaining
  

WHY NO HURRICANE WARNING FOR SANDY?

HURRICANE SANDY UPDATE...

The clean up continues for our friends in the Northeast as the memories of Hurricane Sandy still haunt residents. Take a look at a recent article posted on The Weather Channel's website...it's an interesting read if you're curious as to why no hurricane warnings were issued for Hurricane Sandy.

As Hurricane Sandy approached landfall along the coast of the northeastern U.S. in late October, the National Hurricane Center declined to issue hurricane watches and warnings for the New York and New Jersey coasts. This prompted criticism from many quarters including The Weather Channel's own Bryan Norcoss, who wrote about it on his blog.

The Weather Channel spoke with NHC Director Dr. Rick Knabb to learn more about why the agency elected not to issue watches and warnings for Sandy, and how it will handle storms in the future like this one:

Q: What have we learned from this year's hurricane season?

Dr. Rick Knabb: Sandy was one of those late season formations in October down in the western and central Caribbean. That's a hot spot for late season development. It was another devastating hurricane for the Caribbean, in Jamaica, in Haiti, in eastern Cuba. All impacted in the early part of Sandy's life, but like many of those October hurricanes in the western Caribbean, it came north.

It's certainly not something you see every year. But it highlights the fact that the atmosphere is capable of creating scenarios that don't happen very often, but can be very impactful. I've said this already post-Sandy, that Sandy will not be the last tropical storm or hurricane or post-tropical cyclone that does something we didn't quite expect to see.

The atmosphere has all kinds of ways of creating a scenario... again, that timing of things was just so that Sandy evolved the way that it did. Other things that we don't think could happen, or don't happen very often, could happen in future years. So Sandy is a reminder that we're all vulnerable throughout the hurricane season, even in places that you don't think are vulnerable to these kinds of systems at certain times of year.

You've got to be prepared everywhere along the East Coast and Gulf Coast of the U.S. throughout the entire hurricane season.

Why weren't watches and warnings issued for the Northeast during Sandy?

RK: The big challenge with Sandy was not just the usual challenge of forecasting where it's going to go and how strong it's going to be. We also had the added challenge of forecasting what kind of system was Sandy going to be. Again, it came ashore on Monday night, but if you rewind back to Friday, for example, at that point we still weren't sure when Sandy would lose its tropical characteristics and no longer be a hurricane.

“The big challenge with Sandy was not just the usual challenge of forecasting where it's going to go... we also had the added challenge of forecasting what kind of system was Sandy going to be. ” NHC Director Dr. Rick Knabb

As it turned out, that happened not long before landfall late in the day on Monday, but as viewed from two to three days in advance of landfall it was very uncertain. It could have become post-tropical even sooner. If that had happened -- and this goes into why we elected not to put up the hurricane watches and warnings -- if it had become post-tropical even sooner, and that was a concern we had two to three days before landfall, then we would have been faced with three potentially unpleasant options.

One would have been, well if it becomes post-tropical Sunday night, say a day before landfall, then if we had just gone by the books of how we do things when it becomes post-tropical -- we stop advisories, take down the hurricane watches or warnings that we would have put up -- that wouldn't have been such a good thing to do, because you don't want to change the hurricane watches and warnings mid-stream.

It would have been pretty bad to put up a hurricane warning, everybody starts evacuating, and then in the middle of the event, the warnings come down. So that was one reason why we elected not to put them up in the first place, because the only thing worse would have been to put them up and then take them down.

Now, to preserve those warnings in such a scenario, when it becomes post-tropical a day or so offshore, the only other things we could have done were to continue to write advisories on it, even though it's post-tropical. Continue to leave hurricane warnings up even though it's post-tropical... but we would have risked breaking the dissemination system of our products and our warnings. That was a risk we weren't too keen on taking.

Then finally the only other option we would have had was to, despite it being post-tropical for a day or so before landfall, to -- for lack of a better term, fake it -- call it a hurricane for a day or more before landfall.

We try to call it like we see it. We have to be credible in what we are sending out in terms of our products and warnings. Sandy just posed the scenario where no matter what we were going to do, it was going to have the potential for confusing people.

But we also realized in Sandy that there are some inflexiblities in the weather service warning and product dissemination system that we could change for next time. And we're going to start working on that right here at the beginning of the off-season.

In a situation similar to Sandy, will things be handled differently?

RK: Potentially we will have a slightly different way of doing things. If a post-tropical cyclone, a Sandy, that's a hurricane offshore and then loses tropical characteristics but still comes ashore impactful, then we might have more flexibility, more options. That's bascially what we're headed toward here in this off-season, in 2013. Is to have more options for being able to issue advisories even after it's post-tropical. To be able to keep up hurricane warnings even if it's post-tropical.

But, we have to look at all of the potential ramifications because our products and our warnings go out to all kinds of different users, and it's a very complex system that we weren't willing to try and experiment with in real time, at the risk of breaking it. Because the products and warnings had to go out from the weather service.

But we have this off-season where we can test some things, think through the ramifications of doing things a little differently, and then by the time we get to the 2013 season we should have a plan in place to handle something like a Sandy again in the future. 

At least in terms of having more options, not necessarily that we would do it differently next time, but at least having more options so we could potentially do it differently in whatever scenario that the atmosphere throws at us that we can't even envision right now.

(11/26) To Snow or Not To Snow?

RAIN... MIX... SNOW
Rain will continue to fall across much of the viewing area.  We're starting to see some snow mix to our west.  As colder air from the north makes its way into Kentuckiana we'll see the tail end of the rain transition to a period of light snow.  The best location for this to occur will be north of I-64 & east of I-65.  That would place it across extreme northern Kentucky.


LATEST WAVE 3 STORM CENTER SNOW FORECAST
Most areas will see a cold rain with a a brief transition (after 2AM to a few light snow flurries or snow showers).  With diminishing precipitation and warm ground temperatures little to no accumulation is expected in the metro area.

HOW MUCH
Even to the north and east of Louisville we're only talking a light coating (perhaps up to an inch of wet slushy snow).  Most will only stick to grassy surfaces, rooftops & vehicles.  Precipitation amounts will be light and ground temperatures will be running in the 40s will melt most of the snow as it transitions over.  This would leave a dusting in a few places locally.  The SREF mean brings 0.3" - 0.4" along the Ohio River.  I think this is overdone with the warm temperatures in place.  Banking on the cool down preceeding the end of the precipitation to our north and east for any snow accumulation.




CAUTION
Keep an eye on the thermometer... if the mercury drops below freezing there's a risk for a few isolated slick spots to form.  This is especially true on bridges and overpasses.  Check out the road weather sensors before you leave in the morning or overnight hours.
Snyder at Westport Rd.
I64 Shelby Co. (MM25)
I64 Franklin Co. at Kentucky River
Bluegrass Parkway at Bardstown
I65 at Western Kentucky Parkway in Elizabethtown
Western Kentucky Parkway at Leitchfield

EXTENDED FORECAST


IT'S NO '94... REMEMBER THAT ONE?

Snow TALK! Latest on Tonight

SNOOOOOOWWW!

Risk today:

1) Tonight (after midnight)  Twix Scale 0-10:

The system that we have talked about since Nov 17 has finally arrived. Granted, it has taken quite a few turns on the models during that time.  Isn't that fun?

So how does it look today?

Minor.

Rain is now breaking out across western KY.  It already is developing a convective look to it...which will play a role in the transition to snow later.

The rain band will set up in a SW to NE fashion.

As this happens, the wind direction is going to shift around to the NW...near midnight.  At that point, colder air will get involved.  The look of the radar at that point is crucial to when that takes place in dertermining who gets the snow.

Here is the NAM model for 10pm tonight:  rain along and south of the Ohio River

By 1am, the rain snow line (blue) starts to shift south.  This will begin the transition of rain to snow along and north of I 64.  However, surface temps are expected to be in the mid to upper 30s at this point.  So melting would take place.

By midday Tuesday, the flurries push east.  Any snow on the ground would have melted by this point.

SNOW AMOUNTS: This is tough

Mainly along I-64...   range of dusting to 1" in heavier bursts.  All on grass/rooftops

Areas around Madison to just north of Frankfort...  better chance to reach the 1" mark.

Far northern sections of Bedford to North Vernon, mainly a dusting to 1/2" possible.

 

In general, this looks to be about a 1 inch or less event for portions of our viewing area.

Temperatures are the key part on this.

We will see some dynamic cooling this evening as the rain develops.  That will drop the thermometer down into the mid 30s.  If the rain can come down hard enough (as the NAM suggests), we could see the cooling be stronger as well.  That could drop us closer to 32.  That would lead to all snow and moderate snow at that.  Then accumulations could exceed 1" to up as high as 3".

We are skeptical at this point that the cooling will reach that level, so we plan to keep on the warmer side of things as that is usually the case with our first snow events like this.  But know we will be watching for the above situations carefully overnight and will post as soon as we see signs that this could happen.

It is important to note, even if we got the heavier banding of snow---it would begin to melt an hour or two after it fell.  So travel impacts would only be limited to when the snow is actually falling...and even then it would be visibility issues with a few slick spots on bridges/overpasses.

The Louisville Metro should just remain wet.  The heat island effect should keep icy spots from being an issue in they city.

Outlying areas could see temps briefly into the upper 20s.  That could lead to slick spots..even if you just pick up rain and not snow. 

SUMMARY:
Rain tonight until midnight (some sleet may mix in)
Rain mixes with and chances to snow along and north of I-64
Snow tapers off by sunrise and pushes east
Accumuations look to be around 1" or less for areas that pick  up snow
Snow limited to grassy areas/rooftops
Slick spots possible on bridges and overpasses for a brief period early Tuesday morning

So there you have it.  First flakes of snow tonight----but certainly exciting for snow lovers like me who plan to stay up all night long :)

We will be in the 60s by the weekend.  Just sayin' snow haters :)

BOTS!

How Much Snow?

We are up for a chance to see the first snow of the season, but right now it is a little uncertain if it will be impressive enough to really get excited over.  The current thinking, as I explained on WAVE 3 Sunrise, is that we will see rain tonight which will change over or mix with some snow before sunrise tomorrow morning (probably between 3am-6am). 

Most of the snow will likely melt on the ground and roads since the temperatures of those surfaces are above freezing, and on top of that, they will be wet from the rain.  It is certainly possible to see some light accumulation on some grassy surfaces or elevated surfaces. 

The morning commute shouldn't be any worse than if the precipitation was all rain since most of it will melt on the roads; however, bridges and overpasses may have a few slick spots since they may be cooler than the non-elevated roads.  A few school delays are possible with this system (perhaps more if we end up with some heavier snow bands), but right now, it doesn't look like this system will have a major impact on schools tomorrow.

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I want to show you a couple models I looked at this morning before the morning show started that helped me decide what we would be up against tomorrow morning.  The 00Z NAM shows less than a half an inch through parts of WAVE Country, and remember that most of that will melt on impact.

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And the 00Z GFS shows only very light snowfall too.

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AND EVERYTHING WAS GREAT UNTIL THE 06Z NAM WAS ISSUED A FEW HOURS LATER...

This model came down during the morning newscast and threw a monkey wrench into the confidence that we wouldn't see much snow.  Just great.  So I'm still going with the original thinking of the previous models until the next model runs come down.  One model does not a forecast make.  But it is always wise to notice the changes and trend with each new model run.  This could just be an anomaly, or we could be in for a couple inches of snow that has a good chance to stick for a few hours and cause problems for the morning commute.  We are just waiting to see.

COLD TONIGHT - RAIN TOMORROW - SNOW TUESDAY MORNING

 

CHILLY START ...To the weekend and a mild end to it. The WAVE 3 Weather Team hopes everyone had a wonderful holiday weekend, despite cold temperatures on Saturday and near normal temperatures on Sunday.  

TONIGHT...is no exception to the cold weather. We'll see temperatures dip into the 20s away from the city, and especially where skies stay clear longer. We're watching some high clouds develop from the North and West...they'll bring our Indiana counties some clouds in the coming hours, but not before allow temps to cool into the 20s. We'll keep it a few degrees warmer in the city. Overall, expect a cold start at the bus stop tomorrow. 

DRY WEATHER...will kick off the work week, but it won't stay dry for long. We'll be watching a Southern system that will bring precip to Kentuckiana by tomorrow evening, overnight Monday, and into early Tuesday. Rain may be heavy from time to time, but this will not be a complete wash out, flooding type rain....just scattered showers. As cold weather rushes in overnight tomorrow the rain may end as a brief period of wet snow. As of now (Sunday evening) the latest thinking is that a narrow band will set up. Depending on temperatures aloft and at the surface minor accumulations are possible on grassy surfaces or elevated surfaces. A slick spot or two is possible Tuesday morning, but I expect road temps to remain above freezing therefore I'm not expecting widespread problems. 

BOTTOM LINE...The first flakes of the season may fly in Jefferson County and areas to the East early Tuesday morning. This will not be a big winter event whatsoever...nearly all of us will remain snow free, and since it will fall overnight, most of us won't even see it. It will just be a reminder that Winter is 26 days away. Enjoy, or as Mr. Goode would say...BOTS! (If you're a snow lover:)