1) New Years Eve/Day (twix scale 0-10)
Before I even get to the next one. Let's look back at what just took place.
The models did pretty good again with snow totals and placement. I think the only real surprise was around the Lexington area where the cold air rushed in quicker than expected and gave them 4" of snow.
Louisville officially picked up 1/2" before midnight...and 2.2" this morning for a total of 2.7" for this event. Snow showers later today may "up" that total before midnight.
Winter Weather Advisory (purple) will remain in effect for areas along and east of I-65 until early evening to account for the additional snow showers.
Highest totals were across Indiana as expected. French Lick/Orleans top the list at 8" Paoli a close second with 7".
Many areas along and north of I 64 picked up 2-6" of snow.
Watch out for snow showers later today that may put down a quick 1/2" to 1" . Temps will fall well below freezing tonight. So with the snow showers/flurries around...combined with a melting snowpack (since we likely will hover around 33 all day)--- the risk for slick roads tonight is pretty high if they haven't been untreated. Use caution if you have Saturday night plans.
Sunday should feature the return of some sunshine at times.
NEW YEARS EVE/DAY
This one has been on our charts for awhile---but we haven't had time to give it attention due to 2 other winter storms in the past week.
HPC already has an outlook for at least 4" for early Monday (this is as far out as their outlooks go)
The models are going to struggle with this one only because it is energy from the SW being ejected out into the northern Gulf coast. GFS can be fast---EURO can be too slow ---in these setups. So timing issues still to be worked out---but in general this looks to impact the area Monday afternoon...peaking overnight--and exiting Tuesday midday. Happy New Year!
Precip type will be the biggest headache (as usual) for us. Right now, and when you read this---try to control your anger---the rain/snow line is along I 64.
History has told us that overrunning setups like this in the Ohio Valley lead to 2 things---- ice storms..or plain rain. The GFS/NAM do keep us very close to 32 during the event. So we will have to watch for a freezing rain threat---although without true Arcitc Air in place, plain rain would be more likely. To get snow---you would want this system to remain fairly weak/sheared and move quickly so that the south wind doesn't have time to cause issues.
Another concern is that the models have been running too warm lately. So that has to be watched with this system as we get closer as well. The snowpack likely will knock temps down quite a bit..especially to our north. That will have an impact on this system--especially in the storm track to our south.
So in summary--- here is what are facing. 1) Either a sheared out system that moves so fast---it is suppressed and we miss out on all precip all together. 2) We have a somewhat organized system...yet still mostly an open wave that would not warm us up too much--and allow for another accumulating snow event. 3) Or we have a well developed, slower low pressure that allows for better warming--- rain event---ending as light snow.
I have seen all 3 ideas on the models, and they keep adjusting each model run---so I am going to avoid posting them together. I want to see how the models react to the balloon samplings in the region after todays' wintry event to see what adjustments take place.
I am in tomorrow---so I will certainly blog about it. Right now--- confidence is only about 20% in this next system.