1) Monday Night/Tuesday
This one is an interesting setup for tomorrow night/Tuesday. My concern with this one is strictly timing ...being overnight New Years Eve. Any frozen precip is of concern with so many people out/about.
Here is the basic setup.
The low will develop in the Plains tonight and Monday. Snow will break out across KS/MO. I think a good 6-8" of snow will fall in that region. The low will have more moisture/"umph" to work with across the north side at this stage.
But later Monday/Monday night, thunderstorms are expected across the south. My concern is that these will "steal" the moisture from the northern side of this system as it passes through our area. So amounts look lower than what KS/MO would see.
The next question to figure out is the warming that will take place aloft as this system approaches...and how much does our thermometer move on Monday.
I do think modest warming will kick in...but not until later in the day Monday. So any precip that streaks out toward us by afternoon---likely will be in the form of snow north of the BG/WK parkways.
By Monday night, the models do show the warming aloft...and with no snow pack to our south---I do think it has a good shot of making it to the Ohio River. My only concern with this as the models have been too warm with the warming aloft on the past 2 systems. I will get into that issue later in this post.
So I plan to keep lower levels cold along and north of 64 Monday night. This means that if we indeed have a decent warming layer---rain may fall along 64 with snow pretty likely across IN.
The good news here is that with the storms to the south robbing some moisture----amounts look like. However, any amount of freezing drizzle/rain can cause problems ---so it bears watching. I think northern sections will stay snow for the entire even. The snow pack for you guys will be in your favor. Rain is likely along and south of the parkways.
By Tuesday, the system exits with most areas changing to and ending as light snow or flurries.
I think the areas that stay all snow could see a decent snow ratio. So even though liquid equivalents will be about .15 to .22" to the north...I do think we could squeeze out a 1-4" band of snow. In the freezing rain zone--- .10" of ice accumulation is possible AND /OR 1" of snow. If we get both..that could make it pretty slick in spots. With surface temps near 32 during this event---treated roadways should remain just wet. Any icing would be limited to cars/porches and some sidewalks. So use caution.
So that is how it looks to me.
Our FUTURECAST model just came out...and it has a colder look.
Monday afternoon: snow streaks out.
Monday night: there is a break in action. Nothing may fall from 10p-1am. Which would be great for those out/about traveling. The model is picking up on the idea of the moisture starvation---so I like this look on the model.
By 3am--- snow is back. But this model is farther south along the BG/WK parkways.
By noon Tuesday--it ends.
If the FUTURECAST model is right--- that 1-4" band of snow would have to be pushed closer to I 64.
But overrunning warm systems like this usually dominate...so I am going with the warming aloft to the Ohio River at this point. We could end up with pure RAIN up the Ohio River---that wouldn't suprise me either. But like I said--the models have been running too warm lately s0 that must be taken into consideration.
This does look to be another Winter Weather Advisory event. The only way it would go to warning status is if more than 4" of snow is expected and/or .25" of ice. This system looks to stay below those thresholds at this time. Advisories may get issued at 4pm today or early tomorrow based on midday model run trends.
As always---this is all highly subject to change as we won't truly have a handle on precip types until we see how warm we get Monday afternoon. This is by far a nowcasting (short term) event for the region.
While this is not a crippling winter storm---we will discuss it often because of the timing. We want you all to be safe and aware. Let's hope this keeps trending warm so it is all rain and/or that break that happens Monday night last for several hours so impact is low.
We shall see.
Enjoy the sunny weather today!