Quick post today due to limited time...
what are we tracking?
- a dry night tonight
- rain with warm front tomorrow morning/afternoon
- windy/warm thursday night
- storm threat pushed back until sunrise or after---Friday
- dry Friday afternoon-Saturday night. Warm period
- Record high could get tied/broken Friday...
- Record high could get tied Saturday with low 70s
- Storms/heavy rain Saturday night-Sunday
- Next wave of rain Mon-Tue will feature a cold northern edge. Freezing rain? sleet?
- Cold pattern next week..but nothing brutal- southern storm could make it interesting
Lots to track as you can see above.
Severe threat Thursday night doesn't look impressive..as it is now delayed until Friday morning. Instability continues to fade on the models.
CAPES on both NAM/GFS much lower. Still not zero however--so strong wind gusts possible
CAPES do go up though on Saturday night however as the push of warmer air looks stronger. So severe threat Saturday night is slightly higher than the early Friday event.
As far as the warmth--- Record high is 69 on Friday...set back in 1890!!
Record on Saturday is 72 set back in 1916! I think near 70 is possible Friday if we get skies to break up by afternoon. Saturday looks warmer with the delay on the 2nd wave of rain/storms---- so low 70s looks more likely.
Rain threat remains at 2-4" for entire event Thursday-Tuesday.
The colder northern edge will have to be watched next Tue/Wed. GFS hints at a narrow band of snow and/or freezing rain. It looks to me however--- sleet is more likely with warm layer present. Could even warm enough to go all rain during daylight hours. Something to watch.
GFS ensembles have a colder look to them however---- more of a snow profile.
Then we have a southern tracker by late next week that could phase with the cold air to the north. Too early to get more specific than that.
I will try to send out updates on twitter @wave3weather as evening data rolls in.