"This blog post is from Wave3 intern Sid Abramson"
It has been quite an active January morning with severe weather and heavy rain. Although the risk for severe weather has now ended, the active weather will continue for the next 24 to 36 hours with heavy rain, gusty winds,and even the possibility of some wintry precipitation on the backside of this system. We have been dealing with several disturbances that have been ejected from the southwest, bringing increased rainfall to the area.
Most of our area has already recieved 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with another 1 to 2 (isolated 3) inches possible over the next 24 hours, bringing the concern for some minor flooding, especially in flood prone areas.
HPC rainfall totals through 7 am EST Monday does show the risk for another 1 to 2 inches across the area, with isolated higher amounts south of the Ohio River.
The latest data has been coming in this morning and has showed consistency on rainfall amounts through the next 24 hours.
GFS: 1.26" NAM: 1.57" EURO: 1.72"
As you can see for the most part, most of the data suggests another 1 to 2 inches possible over the next 24 hours as this entire system basically puts the breaks on and stalls over our area, creating a steady rain (heavy at times) for the next 12 to 24 hours.
FutureCast also shows the risk for an addition 1 to 2 inches or rain.
NWS has posted a Flood WATCH for areas along and west of Interstate I-65 through this evening.
With the risk for minor flooding, we will be keeping a close eye on river levels the next several days. The current levels are holding steady at around 12.5 feet but as you can see, these levels are expected to rise close to 17 feet. Although levels will be on the rise, there won't be any major concerns as the levels which would result in an action state must approach 21 feet, still several feet away from the forecasted stage. It will be interesting to monitor future forecasts for any increase in levels due to the most recent heavy rain.
Overall, not a river major river flooding event but for flood prone areas such as creeks, we will need to keep an eye on those levels for brief minor flooding through the next 24 to 36 hours.
The next weather headline will be the cold air that will move into our area tonight, bringing the chance for some brief frozen precipitation late tonight before all moisture moves out of the area. Brian will have a blog post later this morning covering that as well as the long-term pattern, which is showing the potential for the coldest air we have seen in several years!
Based on this, I think I am feeling a B.O.T.S moment soon!