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2:29 PM--- Awaiting conf. call to start....
2:31 PM--- call starts
2:31 PM- torando watches all the way up to St Louis
2:31 PM -- winds are the main threat. 70 mph +
2:32 PM-- scattered torandoes are possible....referencing a similar threat to Jan/Feb 2008 events
2:33 PM-- 11pm moves in from the west
2:33 PM- 2-4am around Louisville area
2:33 PM-- 3-5am east of Louisville
2:34 PM-- The line will be huge..from OHIO to the Gulf Coast
2:35 PM-- Confidence is HIGH for severe weather...it is the TIMING that will need to be adjusted some as
2:36 PM-- now taking questions from emergency managers and medial personnel
2:36 PM-- "How strong will the winds be?" ANS: Wind Advisory with gusts up to 40 mph. The storms could produce up to 70 mph
2:37 PM- "Will this be another March 2nd? ANS: No, not even the same setup.
2:38 PM- JCPS asking about schools...as they will be monitoring the overnight trends. NO decisions made.
2:38 PM- "Will these be straight-line winds?" ANS: Yes..the is the main threat
2:39 PM- "Will this line impact SE KY? ANS: All will feel the effects from one end of the state to the other.
2:40 PM- The line will be moving at 50-60 mph so it will be quick shot at storms.
2:41 PM- "Are you expecting 70 mph winds along the ENTIRE line?" ANS: No, the strongest storms will have a risks of 70 mph +
2:42 PM- Concern about winds staying gusting tomorrow so that crews can repair powerlines.
2:43 PM- "Will we see more tornado warnings issues than svr as a precaution due to the strong wind fields? ANS: that situation will be looked at later.
3:11 PM -- awaiting update from SPC..will be posted shortly.
3:17 PM -- SPC has moved the hatched area for damaging wind gusts a tad further NE to include most areas along and west of I65 (including Louisville). This means that wind gusts of 70+ mph is possible within 25 miles of a given point.
3:32 PM -- Latest wind shear forecast shows values around 45 kts near Central Ky with higher values of 55-65 kts to the west near 2:00 AM. Values of atleast 40 kts are concerning for severe weather potential. We will be monitoring these values closely.
3:40 PM -- Here is the latest wording from SPC:
IT STILL APPEARS THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND EVENTS.
3:52 pm -- In addition to the severe weather that is expected, heavy rain will be a concern once the squall line moves over your area. NWS has stated that 1 to 2 inches (localized higher amounts) of rainfall will be possible in a short period of time. Due to this, ponding on roadways and isolated flash flooding will be possible during the morning rush hour. We will keep a close eye on that.
4:00 PM -- Here is the latest update from NWS Louisville:
Temperatures remaining in the 60s through the night will mean that a squall line that forms out of the storms to our west this afternoon will find a favorable environment to maintain itself through the forecast area. Low level wind shear is mostly unidirectional, but storm relative helicities are very high. We may see some discrete cells develop ahead of the line which would be able to take more advantage of more southerly winds ahead of the line to produce tornadoes. The line itself likely will produce damaging winds as the strong winds aloft get mixed down. Also cannot rule out some embedded tornadoes within the line in the stronger meso`s that form.
4:30 PM -- Latest satelite view is showing some breaks in the clouds with the sun trying to peak out in spots. Any sun will warm our atmosphere up some.
4:32 PM -- Severe weather is now underway to the west with a tornado warning in effect near St Louis. Tornado Watches have been issued to the west. We will be quiet here locally the next few hours but keeping a close eye on the radar for any storm development ahead of the main line later tonight. It is those small cells that break out ahead with the most concern for any rotation.
5:02 PM -- So far, not many reports of damage yet to the west but we do expect this entire line to increase in coverage and intensity. Most reports at this time are wind damage reports.
5:45 PM -- SW Jefferson County Schools in Southern Indiana will be running on a 2 hour delay tomorrow morning due to the potential for severe weather during the morning commute.
6:12 PM -- Latest data is still showing increased wind shear values of around 60-65 kts overnight with a smal area of 70 kts. Remember, all you need for severe weather is atleast 40 kts so there is plenty of shear to raise some concern for wind damage and isolated tornadoes as this line moves through.
6:20 PM -- First report of tornado damage out of Marthasville, MO. Here is the damage summary from SPC:
SIDING DAMAGE ... 16 FOOT STRIPS BLOWN ONE QUARTER MILE DOWNWIND ... OVERHANG BLEW OFF SHED ... PICKED UP WATER TANKS AND MOVED THEM ... TREE TOPS SHREDDED
7:12 PM -- Quiet weather locally for the next several hours. Severe weather continues to progress back to the west where numerous Tornado Watches are in effect. A lot of reports of wind damage and 1 report of tornado damage near St Louis. We are still expecting this line to move through western areas after midnight and Louisville Metro between 2-4 am before moving off to the east. We will be watching the radar closely for any storm development ahead of the main squall line. This is where the most concern would be for any rotation/isolated tornadoes.
7:23 PM -- JUST IN: SPC will likely issue a WATCH soon for western areas. We are keeping an eye on the trends carefully.
7:30 PM -- Here is the thinking from SPC regarding the likelihood of a watch being issued for western areas:
A LINE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN STRENGTH AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
7:47 PM -- New data regarding the amount of shear we will have in the atmosphere when the storms move through. It is still looking likely that around 60-65 kts will be common which is impressive. There is still potential as you can see in the middle of 70 kt wind shear a loft later tonight. We will continue to keep an eye on the radar trends.
8:11 PM LATEST updated from SPC...here is the latest statement regarding our area:
A SQUALL-LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM ECNTRL IL SWWD ACROSS SE MO
LOCATED IN THE EXIT REGION OF A PRONOUNCED 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL
JET. AS THIS JET EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS
EVENING...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE THE
SQUALL-LINE TO ORGANIZE WITH THE LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS IND AND WRN
KY LATE THIS EVENING. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...SHOULD ENABLE
THE SQUALL-LINE TO BECOME AN EFFICIENT WIND DAMAGE PRODUCER. AS SFC
DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OH VALLEY...A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WITH ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
8:23 PM -- JUST IN: SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for far western areas of Ky until 2 am EST. More watches are most likely to be issued further east as time progresses. We are keeping a close eye on the radar.
8:51 PM (KH) -- FROM THE NWS PADUCAH
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT...
A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... SOUTHERN ILLINOIS & FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 1 AM. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS IT ACCELERATES EASTWARD. THE LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO CROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM.
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE AS THIS LINE OF STORMS PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. THE CLASH OF THESE TWO AIR MASSES WILL RESULT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
8:59 PM (KH) -- The WAVE 3 Storm Tracking Team is here to keep you up-to-date. We've put our severe weather congingency plan into action... we're all hands on deck overnight as storms approach.
I've been asked a number of questions...
#1. Is this anything like March 2nd?
Answer: No... completely different. And even though there's a slight chance for spin-up tornadoes - there will not be large damaging tornadoes. With that said - the main threat will be strong winds.
#2. Will everyone see damage?
Answer: No... there will likely be areas that bow out as the line strengthens and moves across the area in a very sheared environment... those bowing segments will produce winds in excess of 70 - 80 MPH and very well could produce some damage. However, that will not occur everywhere.
#3. Will there be school Wednesday?
Answer: Yes, though a few school districts have decided to go on a delayed schedule.
#4. What time will the storms arrive?
Answer: Here in Louisville I'd say between 3 & 4 AM. Sooner to our northwest and later to our southeast.
9:10 PM (KH) -- The latest weather information. The shear remains impressive across the region. As storm to our west move into the area the line should tighten. The storms will become better organized over the next couple hours. As we've mentioned - the main threat will be damaging winds. With that said, and with the present shear, embedded tornadoes along the line will be possible. Forecast still on track!
9:25 PM -- Tornado is reported on the groun in Little Rock, AR. No word on any damage reports at this time.
*On a side note, Greg Forbes, severe weather expert at the Weather Channel has his TORCON index between a 3 and 5 for our area tonight. Again, the main risk for our storms will be damaging winds and an isolated brief tornado.
9:46 PM -- Tornado damage is being reported near the Natural Dam in Arkansas. Reports of trees down and a trained spotter reported a tornado touchdown.
9:50 PM -- Here is the latest HRRR run for tonight. As you can see, the squall line is shown moving through the area aound 5 am. Timing is not exact but our forecast of 2-4 am still looks on track for Louisville Metro with western areas after midnight.
10:00 PM -- Latest wind shear forecast is still impressive with around 65 kts when the storms arrive. Reminder that anything above 40 kts supports severe weather (mostly damaging winds)
10:02 PM -- A tornado warning has now been issued just west of Paducah. This was radar indicated. Winds have been on the increase in this area as the squall line has been nearing the area and increasing in intensity and coverage.
10:10 PM -- With any potential severe weather event, especially during the overnight hours when most are asleep there are a 5 important things to remember before you head to bed:
1) Plug in your NOAA weather radio
2) Download the Wave3 mobile app where you can access the up to date weather blog and radar
3) Be sure to have a flashlight and extra batteries on hand in the case of power outages
4) Remember that we will simulcast on 840 WHAS Radio if a tornado warning is issued
5) We will do live updates on air at every top and bottom of the hour
10:30 PM -- JUST IN: SPC now has our entire area under a mesoscale discussion. A watch will be required soon as severe weather increases with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible.
10:35 PM -- Thanks to those who have been reading the blog. We have taken your suggestion and will begin a new blog post once the watch is issued. This new blog post will continue to have up constant updates as we head throughout the night.
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