Risks today:
1) Next Monday/Tuesday (very low threat)
2) January 17th/18th (light amounts threat)
3) January 26th/27th (something to watch)
Remember, these blog posts are for the snow lovers who are wondering about any possible snow chances. I am not forecasting any winter storms at this moment (nor did I yesterday. :) ) Snow forecasts this far out have very low accuracy---but we can at least see possible systems to monitor for that chance. But I will get to those chances later. We have more pressing issues to discuss.
SETUP
We have several fronts/low pressures that will move through our region over the next 5-7 days. The high pressure off the east coast is not moving anywhere---so every system that develops will get "stuck" over our area as they re-develop. With so much activity---timing/amounts/severity will be our issues to focus on.
RAIN TIMING
Here is how the chances for rain stack up right now:
- early tomorrow morning (light/drizzle)
- early Thursday (could be locally heavy)
- after midnight Thursday night (storm threat)
- early Friday (left over storms...may last into Friday afternoon)
- Saturday afternoon/night (Heavy rain possible)
- Sunday (Heavy rain possible)
- Monday (rain pushing east---wintry mix on western edge)
RAIN AMOUNTS *** this likely will change so these values NOT set in stone
- early Wednesday (not much..maybe .10" expected at this time)
- early and late Thursday (.50" looks the most common)
- Friday (amounts of .25")
- Saturday (amounts up to 1" to 1.5" possible)
- Sunday (amounts up to 1" to 1.5" possible)
Overall 2 to 4" of rain is certainly possible with this pattern ahead. Thunderstorms and/or training of the boundary of these fronts can certainly increase these amounts. That will have to be watched closely---but it is too far off to get more specific than that.
SEVERE THREAT
As mentioned above, timing/instability will be our main limiting factors with any severe threat. The moisture won't be a problem...neither will be the ability to lift the air.
So I will focus on winds/shear and instability.
First up- Thursday.
Warm front in the morning. We could see a strong/gusty storm with that passage. That will set the stage for a warm/moist afternoon Thursday. The timing of the cold front (#1) has slowed a bit Thursday night. So that is certainly limiting instability even further. Threat higher west of I 65.
NAM CAPES ...200 ish. GFS CAPES ...still more bullish around 500
So there is enough there to at least run the risk for a strong to perhaps severe storm overnight Thursday.
There is a decent belt of high winds and turning with the winds, esp on the GFS, that any decent instability could tap into .
NAM winds aloft GFS winds aloft
So right now, this is not a high threat for severe storms. But it isn't zero either. Just something to monitor that evening---so stay close to the evening newscasts that day for updates.
Next shot at severe--- Saturday.
Yesterday instability was low. Today---it is up a bit. I can only show the GFS since this is beyond the NAM range.
GFS CAPES up into the 200 to perhaps 300 range.
The winds aloft are strong again as this involves a new low pressure...but displaced a bit to the south/east.
So once again--- severe threat would be overnight Saturday. Threat looks to be more to our south/east counties at this time. Still early though.
RAIN/SNOW MIX
The models still struggle with the amount of cold air that bumps into this moisture field Monday/Tuesday. I think it will be pretty slow/gradual. So while snow may mix in---I see us staying above freezing for this event---so I don't see an accumulation potential. Sorry BOTS fans. The only way I see this changing is if the last low in the series is stronger than forecast---it could then pull in colder air faster---but no model is showing such an idea right now. As always--we will watch it.
ARCTIC BLAST
The models are in much better agreement today on the cold next week and placement. It looks to be centered over the Great Lakes with some impact locally.
The GFS is furthest south with this "dip" into KY/TN. EURO stops it across southern IN. Both show a cold look however. GFS is much colder with barely above 20° for highs by next Thursday into the weekend.
I think we will moderate the following week..then see an even bigger "dip" the last week of the month. That one be nasty.
SNOW CHANCE
January 18th/19thchance will be a clipper. This again depends how big of a dip the cold air takes. EURO isn't as deep so the clipper misses us to the north. GFS ...more south...clipper impacts us. So this would be a light snow event---with high snow ratios. Again, not our official forecast----but that is how I see the risk looking right now.
January 26th/27th would be a storm that arrives with the 2nd dip of cold air. This low looks stronger..and a southern tracker. So bears watching.
Shew. A lot on our plates. Many updates to come!!
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