Holding off on a SnowTALK! post today as it is too far out to pinpoint the low pressures to pick out dates. I hope to have an early stab at that in the next couple of days.
Clouds (some hints of sun) will be the rule today. SW winds will keep us steady around 40 for several hours. Any moisture that develops ahead of the cold front coming our way today should be in drizzle form.
However, once we switch to NW winds...the cold air will allow the support for maybe a few flurries...especially across Indiana. VERY minor event in regards to precip. Temps will fall quite a bit tonight into the low 20s.
Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday look quiet with temps warming nearly 10 degrees each day to getting close to 60 by Wednesday.
The late week/end pattern will feature a series of low pressures that will track near us...but to our west.
Each one will bring in the surge of warm air..and risk for showers/storms and some heavy rain.
There is a risk for 65-70° with this pattern. I placed a 70° on Friday as I think that will fit in between two systems...but it may very well be Saturday that reaches that number. Hard to poinpoint. Either way---warm. Record by the way is 69 on Friday. Certainly could be in jeopardy.
I know many of you are thinking...what about severe storms? Well, it is still early to nail that down with such an active stream---timing is everything when it comes to instability in that setup. I do think the strongest of the lows looks to be Sunday. That one has a strong wind field with it.
Dewpoints look to surge quite a big as well with that front.
So that may be the best chance for strong/severe storms. It also will be the last one in the series that will usher in the cold air threat.
GFS hints as how the cold air catches up to the system Sunday night with a wintry look developing.
Just how cold and for how long....are the 2 biggest questions we have to figure out for the 2nd half of January.
The AO does still show a significant drop to it.
GFS NAO (Negative) EURO NAO (Very Negative)
In fact, the EURO NAO is the lowest I have seen it in quite some time.
The PNA (positive signal locks in the cold) is showing signs of going positive as well.
So to get Arctic cold to move in and stay for awhile..you need a - AO -NAO and +PNA. All 3 seem to be lining up for the first time in over 2 years.
As far as snow goes----there is NO way to determine that this early. Obviously, whatever falls in this setup likely would be frozen...we just cannot pinpoint details this early.
Confidence in this major change is growing. If I have any concerns right now---it would be to delay the cold change maybe by a day or two. Models can sometimes be too eager with these changes. Otherwise--- I would hope for 70 this week to soak it up. We may not see anything like this (warm wise) until we get closer to spring.
We shall continue to trend to see how this evolves.