Risks today:
1) Tonight/Tomorrow night (both minor) (0-10 twix scale)
0- no significant impact expected at this time
2) Thursday night (southern tracker) (0-10) twix scale)
1/2 bar at this stage
3) Next Mon-Wed (snow showers/clippers) (0-10 twix scale)
1 bar
TONIGHT
Radar is certainly lit up with snow/freezing rain...but it hard to find any reports of any of this reaching the ground. We are pretty dry right now---so the atmosphere is soaking it up before we see it reach our level. We may saturate to the point that a few areas may see a light mix...but that will be closer to the best moisture fields which will be mainly south of the BG/WK parkways.
Road temps are still warm enough---and precip should be light enough---that impacts on the roads on where this mix DOES fall---looks minor.
Current road temp off Westport Rd at the Snyder (look at the black box) 43°
Current road temp off I-65 at Etown (look at the black box) 39.9°
Let us know what you see tonight---as your reports will help us in verifying radar data. If this turns out to be more freezing rain/drizzle---it may give a very light glaze to sidewalks/mailboxes/cars ---so use caution.
TUESDAY NIGHT
Another repeat of tonight it appears. The main flow over the SE is blocked...so low pressures keep re-developing and surging north into KY. This one has a bit more moisture with it----and a bit more of a warmer profile as well. So we plan to go with a mix or all rain...but again---we have to watch those surface temps on the northern edge for any spots that remain 32 or lower.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY:
Overall---the models say this will be quiet and tranquil. It is the NAM that is making the noise. The NAM takes the last of the series of southern lows...and tries to bring it more northeast than due east.
This would be a setup for a rain/mix changing to all snow. Accumulations would take place with this setup too.
The GFS/EURO do no agree. They have a more flat ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic and the low drives more east than north east.
GFS EURO
So right now, the NAM is all by itself with this idea. I would not totally discount it only due to the ridge over the western Atlantic. The high that is to the north looks like it won't really build in until Saturday----so I don't see much suppression taking place. So it appears to be a matter of whether or not the low across the south will sense the ridge to the EAST and try to go over it...or will the ridge break down and the low heads more out to sea.
The NAO would help in this setup with a signal. But..it really doesn't. A positive signal would tell me the low heads out to sea. A negative one says up more to the northeast. The signal it gives: Neutral :) But it is trending at least positive...so maybe that is the way to lean.
Right now--we plan to keep low precip chances in for this period--and wait to see how the NAM handles the ridge in future runs. We have a few days yet to fine-tune--but no need for concern yet.
ARCTIC FRONT
It is still right on track to move down over the weekend...and take us over by early next week.
The front will side in Sunday/Monday
As it does so---expect some Arctic front snow showers/flurries to fly. Some light accumulations possible in these setups.
The cold really takes over by Tuesday.... highs in the teens!!!
LATE MONTH
I will be watching for the chance for this Arctic air mass to try to retreat by the 24-26th. That usually spells trouble for KY when it comes to overrunning and freezing rain. We'll watch that trend carefully.
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