Risks today:
1) January 16/17th
I will get to that one in a second...
First... a lot on our plates this week.
As I posted yesterday, 2 lows will impact the region later this week/end. Both pumping in warm/moist air...especially for January standards.
The first one arrives late Wednesday into Thursday.
There is some instability with this low showing up on the GFS/NAM so that will have to be watched for severe thunderstorm potential.
GFS Capes (around 750) NAM Capes (300)
Both show the risk more for our southern/southwestern sections of our viewing area. So far...I would agree with that as timing seems to be Thursday afternoon to the west...spreading east by nightfall. At any rate, severe weather is quite POSSIBLE. We'll watch it.
Then we see a break on Friday by late morning. That will be crucial on highs for that day. The risk is there for 65-70 ...but again...depends on cloud cover.
Signs are there that temps will actually RISE all night Friday night into Saturday. So Friday night looks quite warm...maybe 60s all night long.
Then we get to Saturday. This varies greatly from the GFS/EURO..but the Canadian is siding with the GFS so I am leaning that way as well.
The front moves in Saturday...but it is a slow mover as an area of low pressure is actually going to develop along the front Saturday night/early Sunday. Anytime that happens...the front slows to a crawl.
At the same time, the winds aloft are quite strong...and parallel to the front itself.
This means a strong moisture transport...and training of rainfall. Dewpoints showing up well into the 50s...that is quite high for January.
Instability isn't that high..so thunder is possible---but severe threat looks low.
It is possible we could see quite the heavy rain event Saturday/early Sunday. 2"+ is possible with that event.
In total, the Thursday and Saturday system is showing up on the GFS for a grand total of 4-5"!
Sunday---the front clears the region. Temps will drop all day long from morning highs in the 50s. We should be in the 30s by afternoon.
I am not that concerned with any significant frozen precip as the moisture looks to move out pretty quick. We could see some flurries---but right now---timing isn't lining up for anything significant.
JANUARY 16/17th
The upper level pattern is favorable for the southeast ridge of high pressure to setup off the east coast. At the same time---a decent low will round the base across TX and move across the SE USA.
This is a perfect setup usually for a big winter storm for Kentucky.
The question here will be how much cold air will be in place. No sense in worry about this one yet---but at least it is something on the charts to track. By the way, do the dates of January 16/17 sound familiar? :) They should.
As mentioned yesterday, the extreme cold is NOT likely to arrive fast. I think it will arrive in waves. Each one..colder..and colder..and colder. Models are notorious for being too fast Arctic cold. But I must stress...while we are talking about a big drop later this month---this does NOT look to be record cold. It will just feel extreme as it will be the coldest air in nearly 3 years. How extreme? I think highs in the teens are possible by the end of the month. But it is very hard to pinpoint the dips of the pieces of the Polar Vortex this far out.
Asia is facing of those pieces now and seeing record cold for them.
But one step at a time here folks--- let's get through the warmth/storm/heavy rain threat first.
If only the rain that's expected could be snow... BOTS!
Posted by: Troy Carter | January 07, 2013 at 05:47 PM