Risks Today
1) Next Thursday/Friday (rain or snow)
ODDS and ENDS
Warm today....south winds should help us reach into the 50s with little effort.
The first of many fronts will sag down tonight just after midnight. Indiana will feel the effects of the front first with the north winds. Louisville and south will feel the "cold" by sunrise. Highs will struggle into the mid 30s tomorrow as a result.
Another front will slide through Monday. This one will have true Arctic air with it. It will drop temps into the teens Monday night. Flurries and snow showers are common with Arctic fronts. They don't show up on models well...but as a general rule in these setups---any moisture floating around gets "squeezed" out. Even a small amount of moisture can lead to flurries/snow showers. Accumuluations are not common with limited moisture like this. Usually the snow just blows around all over the roads and edges of grass. It would just add to the "wintry" feel to the pattern.
GFS snow map shows the light amounts:
How much we warm Tuesday ...and how low we drop Tuesday morning---will highly depend on cloud cover and winds. To get max cooling...you want clear skies and calm winds. But I do see clouds passing through and at least some wind to deal with. So I think around 10 deg will be a common theme. If we had snow on the ground---I would go colder---but the ground looks snowless. Now, the bad news with having the wind ---wind chills. And they could dip to -5 below Tuesday. Bundle up!!!!!
It least it won't be as bad as 19 years ago when we woke up on this date with a low in Louisville of -22° and -37° and Shelbyville (coldest ever for KY). So hey---- highs in the 20s and lows around 10 don't sound too bad now does it ? :)
The big questions will be what to do with the late week system.
NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY
The EURO/GFS vary on the timing and track of this one. A slower system will have a better chance to dig and bring in warmer air into the region. And therefore---rain.
A faster, yet still potent, system will limit a warm-up and create a rain or snow setup for the region.
Right now, I am leaning toward a mix of the two as I see support for both setups still at this time.
GFS:
Track pretty much right over KY. Likely a rain to snow setup.
EURO:
Track is more south to line up with the GFS on the latest run. Likely a rain to snow setup as well.
NOGAPS/Canadian are north with the low. Warm...and all rain.
Again---still early. The model trend is south with the lows---so we'll watch it.
We know we can't trust models post Arcitc fronts. They never do well with the recovering from such airmasses. Cold air is heavy and dense. I am not buying a signifcant warmup next week at this time. Modest--sure...significant---no.
In fact, after this low---next weekend looks cold /windy and snowy. Snow showers look constant.
We may see another run at a warmup shortly after that with yet another cold blast following. You see a pattern here? Get used to it. That is the way this is going to be right into February. It looks like we will have our plates full with timing of storms and more rain/snow line fun.
Let's get through the low next week first.
See you guys Monday!
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