1) Sunday PM/Monday
2) Next Thursday/Friday
3) Week of 21st
I will get those risks on the chart in a second...but first...
ODDS AND ENDS
Warm front/cold rains will be the issue for us over the next 36 hours.
Warm front arrives this morning...but we are already "warm". So it will just add moisture to an already moisture soaked atmosphere. This means the potential moisture in the air can lead to very heavy downpours if tapped into. Hence the reason flash flooding is possible with the downpours today and into Sunday.
Highs will be tough today as there will be a "dry" slot on the southeast side of the low track. That low track will be verrrry close to us. Right now..best chance to see that slow looks to be south of 64 and east of 65. North and west of those lines----rain may hold for quite some time...and therefore cooler. Record high for Louisville is 72. It is reachable if we dry out---otherwise---upper 60s is the best we will do.
Based on radar trends this morning---we look good to enter the dry slot later on.
Then we focus on the cold front portion. That will send in a band of rain/storms near sunrise Sunday. Severe threat still looks low---but like the other morning---gusty winds/power outages are possible. We will watch the trends on this later on this evening to see how they initiate to our west.
Sunday will be a tricky day as cold air will start to move back in. It will start to change any rain around ---to snow on the NW side of our viewing area by afternoon/evening.
While all of this is happening---the cold front that moves through---stalls over east KY. So everything Sunday afternoon becomes a standstill. Then a new low develops along the front and rides up along it. It will be that next surge of moisture that will need to be watched to see how much cold air is place across our region for more wintry precipinto Monday. That low will finally be enough to kick the front east once again...and we clear out.
The debate among meteorologists is that wave of low pressure that develops along the front ---even reaches this far north or not? GFS looks less excited about this...NAM shows it more.
Here are the snow maps:
HPC has just put out a slight risk for 4" to our west..including Paducah and Evansville.
I can only assume they are looking at the GFS ensembles...because there is not much support for that idea right now.
However---the ground is warm. And wet. It is very difficult to get snow to stick in that setup. There is even a chance that the models are too cold with upper levels..and freezing rain falls. But even then--- most at risk would be trees/power lines. Warm ground temps would help ease any concerns unless we dipped to 30 0r below---then problems develop.
I think there will be a narrow band of snow/sleet/freezing with on the NW side of this shield of rain that stalls Sunday night. Snow looks more likely from Jasper to Bedford to maybe even Seymour. The flakes would be large if snow did mix in/change to... so you could see a quick grassy accumulation. But it would likely melt as soon as the snow eased up. That is the only area I see right now that anything "exciting" would take place.
Elsewhere..a flake or two may mix in...but any wintry precip looks brief and limited do the warm effects so I do not see any red flags at this time.
Temperature profiles like this are a challenge until they truly get going. The best info in these setups comes from pilots taking off/landing at area airports. Their reports of icing/freezing levels really help in determining how things are evolving.
I will blog more on Sunday/Monday's setup more in the morning.
We will see a drop in the week ahead---but the winds will be westerly. So our air will be seasonable. Mostly in the upper 30s and low 40s.
The Arctic air lingers up north.
Now...here is where the models diverge.
GFS keeps us quiet through the weekend.
EURO develops a closed/cutoff low pressure that drives across TX...then into the TN valley by Friday.
It will be mostly a warm system...but there will be a cold upper low on the NW side. That would likely produce some wet snow underneath that. NOGAPS/GFS model also hint at this too---but suppress it quite a bit.
It is a recent change in model thinking---so I decided not to jump on it yet with the 7day forecast when I got to work. I would like to see more support that a low would actually be ejecting that quickly or not.
WEEK OF JAN 21ST
This is the period that both the GFS/EURO agree will get COLD for the country.
Indicies line up for a cold pattern...so there is strong support for this change.
EURO dumps the polar vortex (main core of cold near north pole) over the Great Lakes by the 22nd. We would certainly feel the affects for that.
GFS: same ordeal. Core moves in near the same date.
Just how cold? That is the question. Highs in the 20s certainly look likely with this setup---but any snow cover areas to our north..or even us...pick up----it will be much much colder. If there is a chance of us going below zero this season---this one looks like it.
The location of the Polar Vortex is interesting as well. It allows for a southern storm track to cut underneath it. That could make things very interesting for the southern USA.
I know it seems like the colder air keeps showing up "a week away" every time I post--but that is why I caution---delays in Arctic blasts happen almost EVERY time with models. So always go with the delayed approach. The last 10 days of the month look to be finally be the target time.
I hope this all made sense :) I am on cold meds ...not a twix high unfortunately.
I will update fb/twitter throughout today and tonight
Blog update tomorrow morning.