Risks today
1) Later tonight (very minor)
2) Tomorrow afternoon/night (light accumulations) 1 twix bar SCALE 0-10
3) Saturday afternoon (light accumulations) 1 1/2 twix bar SCALE 0-10
4) Monday-Tuesday (rain or snow) no twix count for this one yet
ODDS/ENDS
3 tornadoes confirmed so far---2 EF-0's 1 EF-1
ORANGE COUNTY, IN
HARRISON COUNTY, IN
MARION COUNTY, KY (with 2 injuries)
NWS needs your help with storm reports. Below is a map of areas of concern. GREEN areas has been looked at. RED areas MAY get looked at if they get enough info. So please let us know if you have any pics of damage. all_wave_weather@wave3.com is our email.
We will have a band of showers (gusty winds) that will pass with the cold front over the next few hours. Nothing severe expected.
LATER TONIGHT:
Colder air will move in pretty fast ...changing any moisture in the area to light snow.
GFS and NAM bufkits both have the changeover time around 10pm.
Accumulations look limited...but with temps crashing so fast into the 20s...a dusting is possible..esp east of I-65 along I 64. Just be alert for a few slick spots in the morning in case the winds don't get a chance to dry the roads out.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
This will be the first of many "clippers" we will face the next few days. This one actually will develop OVER the region---so nailing down the timing/amounts is a challenge. Overall, it looks very "showery" with the snow showers with this one. A few spots may see as much as an inch...some a dusting...some just a few flurries. It is too difficult to nail down locations on that with it not even on the maps yet.
GFS: Gives us light amounts
NAM: again...light accumulation risk
Obviously, if you get caught under one of those heavier snow showers---roads can get slick---so be alert..especially after sunset.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON
The next clipper lines up and heads our way. This one has a bit more moisture with it because the wind turns briefly south. As always, a south wind will make temp profiles tricky as we will have a modest warm up. Right now, the overall trend looks to be all snow north of the parkways...and a mix or all rain south of the parkways. In the all snow areas--- 1" again looks possible---but a few ensembles hint that some banding is possible that may spit out a couple of 2-3" amounts. We aren't going that high yet this early with uncertainty on how much warming will take place. But we will keep that in mind as we continue forward.
The NAM is showing more of a rain profile..but the NAM has done HORRIBLE lately ...so discounting it for now.
MONDAY/TUESDAY
Yet another clipper. But temp profile varies. GFS says rain. EURO says snow. I would lean toward the EURO only because any accumulations from the previous 2 clippers should drive the storm track more south...than north. Amounts don't look heavy at this time.
Brian, what is your thoughts on what we might expect over the next couple weeks.
*** I still a strong low near the 9th/10th...may have thunderstorms with that. Otherwise---several more shots of cold air to deal with based on pattern over the northern hemisphere. Plenty of winter to deal with...which helps aid in stronger low pressures. -BG
Posted by: Tpate | January 30, 2013 at 06:06 PM
Couldn't you have saved a lot of time by simply saying no real snow instead of talking forever and not saying much?
Posted by: Daddyofjas | January 31, 2013 at 04:49 AM
Snow showers! Oh my gosh! Panic-panic cancel JCPS after school activities What has the media done to common sense!
Posted by: Kevin Freund | January 31, 2013 at 05:03 PM