1) Later tonight (very minor)
2) Tomorrow afternoon/night (light accumulations) 1 twix bar SCALE 0-10
3) Saturday afternoon (light accumulations) 1 1/2 twix bar SCALE 0-10
4) Monday-Tuesday (rain or snow) no twix count for this one yet
3 tornadoes confirmed so far---2 EF-0's 1 EF-1
ORANGE COUNTY, IN
HARRISON COUNTY, IN
MARION COUNTY, KY (with 2 injuries)
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We will have a band of showers (gusty winds) that will pass with the cold front over the next few hours. Nothing severe expected.
Colder air will move in pretty fast ...changing any moisture in the area to light snow.
GFS and NAM bufkits both have the changeover time around 10pm.
Accumulations look limited...but with temps crashing so fast into the 20s...a dusting is possible..esp east of I-65 along I 64. Just be alert for a few slick spots in the morning in case the winds don't get a chance to dry the roads out.
This will be the first of many "clippers" we will face the next few days. This one actually will develop OVER the region---so nailing down the timing/amounts is a challenge. Overall, it looks very "showery" with the snow showers with this one. A few spots may see as much as an inch...some a dusting...some just a few flurries. It is too difficult to nail down locations on that with it not even on the maps yet.
GFS: Gives us light amounts
NAM: again...light accumulation risk
Obviously, if you get caught under one of those heavier snow showers---roads can get slick---so be alert..especially after sunset.
The next clipper lines up and heads our way. This one has a bit more moisture with it because the wind turns briefly south. As always, a south wind will make temp profiles tricky as we will have a modest warm up. Right now, the overall trend looks to be all snow north of the parkways...and a mix or all rain south of the parkways. In the all snow areas--- 1" again looks possible---but a few ensembles hint that some banding is possible that may spit out a couple of 2-3" amounts. We aren't going that high yet this early with uncertainty on how much warming will take place. But we will keep that in mind as we continue forward.
The NAM is showing more of a rain profile..but the NAM has done HORRIBLE lately ...so discounting it for now.
Yet another clipper. But temp profile varies. GFS says rain. EURO says snow. I would lean toward the EURO only because any accumulations from the previous 2 clippers should drive the storm track more south...than north. Amounts don't look heavy at this time.