SnowTALK! Wednesday Edition

Risks Today:

1) Monday/Tuesday (light snow)   Twix Scale (0-10)  1/2 bar
2) January 24th/25th 

ODDS AND ENDS
We still have a southern low that is very close to our region tonight.  It will crank up and head east tonight/Thursday with a decent shot at heavy snow.  Here is the latest GFS snow map for that one:

Good skiing for those heading to the Apps :)

We only get clouds off of this one.  And even those will start to break up some tomorrow afternoon.  Better chance at a partly cloudy sky on Friday and Saturday.

Then ...we prepare for the Arctic Cold.

COLD SETUP/NEXT MONDAY-TUESDAY
This will not be just one front that has the BIG CHILL with it.  It will actually come in waves.  Each one stronger, and deeper...and colder.

First wave should be Sunday/Monday,  Second one next Tuesday, and third one just after the 24th/25th. 

And the cold may last a while.  We look for a ridge of high pressure to setup EAST of Hawaii to give the lower 48 of the United States a cold look.  The GFS ensembles see that risk early next week.

By late month---the ridge is fully east of Hawaii and the trough of cold takes over most of the country.  There is also a strong high over the far north (marked X).  That is a strong signal of Arctic cold for the lower 48 ...including us here in Kentuckiana. 

There will be a risk for some snow showers/flurries/squalls with each push of cold air that I posted on the chart earlier.   Light accumulations are possible in these setups---but most of these snow showers just blow around everywhere so accumulations can be tough.  Very "wintry" however.  Wind chills starting with the 2nd shot of cold air could very well dip below zero at times early next week. 

Any warm-up looks brief...and modest.  There will be many waves that will ride the base of the cold air trough----so the flow looks active.  Sure, a few may deepen enough to warm us up a bit---but again, only briefly.  A pattern like this can lead to clippers that deepen as they turn north of the Gulf of Mexico and even stronger off the east coast.  So those will need to be watched.

One such wave ...the strongest I see right now...looks to be near the 24th/25th.  Too far out to see how deep this wave will be and the track---but it has potential.

 

Comments

[D]

We get it already. Go just north...snow. Just west..snow. Just east...snow. Just south...snow. No need to almost daily rub our noses in the fact that you have a better chance of winning a billion dollar lottery then you do seeing any real snow here.

[Marcus]

Another bust for snow this year so bring on spring :(

[D]

Hey WAVE, why is it you never post comments when someone has some constructive criticism? I have noticed you folks have made censorship a policy there.

[D]

not to put a kink in that fridgid forcast but both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day forcast from the nws calls for above average temps...so i just dont see below average cold for us..looks like once again its a bust winter!

*** I do post/respond when I am at the station. NO access to the account otherwise. The cold forecast still looks cold to me. The warmups will happen..but they look modest/brief. BG