We have pretty quiet weather today and tomorrow before the storms move in. The rain may begin in the early morning of Thursday, or could wait until later in the day. Here are the chances:
2am-6am: 40% chance
6am-5pm: 80% chance
5pm-12am: 60% chance
Along with the rain on Thursday, we could possibly see some strong thunderstorms. Right now, we aren't under a risk of organized severe weather, but we can't rule out some stronger isolated storms... especially during the afternoon.
DAY3 FORECAST IS BASED ON A SLOWER EJECTING UPPER LOW...MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF. THIS FEATURE WILL FINALLY BE KICKED DOWNSTREAM AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOTED WITHIN
THE WARM CONVEYOR AS PLUME OF HIGH PW IS SHUNTED ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. 60F SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AS FAR NORTH AS
THE BOOTHEEL OF MO. WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN POOR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR CONSIDERABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THIS MODIFIED WARM SECTOR SUCH THAT ORGANIZED LINEAR
BANDS OF STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED ALONG
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL COOLING
FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS NRN AR/MO THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A
SECONDARY POCKET OF STRONG CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO DECAYING SFC LOW WHERE CONVERGENCE/LAPSE RATES WILL BE
ENHANCED. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY WILL ONLY EXTEND LOW
SEVERE PROBS INTO SERN MO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
Thursday's storms could bring some heavy downpours at times , but flooding should not be a problem. Most areas should get between a quarter to three-quarters of an inch of rain.