(2/14) Valentine's Day (snow chance update)

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A LOVELY FORECAST
The Valentine's Day forecast look GREAT!  Look for highs in the mid 50s with partly sunny skies.  You can thank the southerly winds for the nice weather... or your favorite weatherman :)

RAIN SNOW CHANCES
I'm not overly excited about any of the models for producing heavy snow amounts... but then again I didn't expect that a few places would pick up four inches of snow with the narrow band that developed on Wednesday morning.  I digress.
Let's take a look at our chances at least.
The first will come with a few snow showers or squalls on Friday.

The 00Z GFS picks this feature out... The image is valid for 4PM Friday.


The 00Z NAM for the same time is a little more robust in the precipitation amounts.
Should the NAM verify - a slushy accumulation could occur, expecially Friday night.


LATER NEXT WEEK
Next Monday into Tuesday another area of low pressure slides through the area - the GFS keeps temperatures warm on the onset, but with colder temperatures sliding in we could see a brief transition to snow as the precipitation exits to the east.


Now let's talk about the system that has my attention!  And this one comes in late next week.  Thursday and Friday.  I pointed this out a couple of days ago and the GFS is still hanging onto it.  It would provide an awesome track for active weather... It's anybody's guess this far out.  However, with the colder air coming into place and a digging pattern setting up... I think it's possible for the 500mb vorticity max to round the base of the trough and move in a similar way that the model progs.  Could be another scenario with storms along the cold front and snow on the backside in the cold air.  We'll have to keep an eye on it.  Lots can change in 7 to 10 days... but I won't lie... I'm a little excited about this one!


HAPPY VALENTINE'S DAY
Here are a few Valentine's Day towns that come to mind... do you have any?
The most notable are Valentine, Nebraska & Loveland, Colorado
But, there's also a Valentine, Texas & Valentine, Arizona (and probably others) 
Don't forget - Loveland, Ohio & Cupids, Newfoundland.
Of course we have Hart, County (pardon the spelling) and Flowers Gap, IN.
(Valentine, IN - Arrow, KY - Love, KY - Loving, KY - Diamond, KY - Diamond, IN - Lily, KY - Daisy, KY)