1) Valentine's Day
Interesting day certainly for the area. Many spots into the 50s with snow falling to the north. One of our spotters, Scotty Gore, in Clarkson KY reported a temp rise today of 19 this morning to 51 this afternoon! South winds always do a number on our area.
Meanwhile, the snow boundary aloft was just north of I-64. Usually the magic number for rain to mix with snow is around 37°. Here are the current temps on the KY mesonet page:
Still some big wet flakes tonight in that colder zone along and north of 64. Rain elsewhere.
The next few days look quite.
Then we get to Thursday. I decided to use the EURO for these trends as it has been the consistent the last several runs.
Thursday's setup will involve 2 streams. One passing through our area---one to our south. This will deliver showers to the area. The two streams will eventually merge by Friday.
In fact, the EURO has been quite bullish on the idea that a strong low will develop off the NE coast Friday. This may allow for a cooler day for us Friday since we will feel a slight northerly flow.
The weekend will be dominated by the idea of a strong low developing in the plains. This will send warmer air into the region. This is a different setup than the past big low that came through here. It will race to the north/east Sunday/Monday. (likely Monday since models have been slowing this down).
But the front never really SLAMS into the area. Instead...it stretches out over the southeast part of the country. By Valentine's Day...a low will then develop in the Gulf and track northeast. If there is ANY chance for a snow event the next couple of weeks---it would be from this setup. And likely a situation in which the track of the upper low would be the only way to cool enough for snow on the NW side of the track. Right now--the model at face value is too warm for such.
OVERALL: Highs will climb into the 50s by late week and the weekend. I would not rule out 60s still. All depends on timing of the big low in the plains. As far as severe storms---this remains in the "chance" category as there is decent wind aloft...but still cannot gauge instability parameters just yet. We have plenty of time to track this low/storm threat once we get a bit closer.
Indications remains on colder shots for later this month. Impossible to determine any storm/snow chances at this stage however.