Andy isn't feeling well today, so I am in helping out this evening with Kevin.
1) Next Wednesday (still keeping this one in). Twix scale 0-10 : 1/2 bar
2) February 16/17
I think the big story in weather certainly is the blizzard in the northeast. We will be posting more and more on that as it unfolds.
Locally, it will be rain with the next system that will be our next headline.
Timing looks to kick in Sunday afternoon:
It will max out Sunday night..and should push east by late morning Monday.
Most of the models hint at about .75" of rain. Thunder is certainly possible---but severe threat remains low with latest data rolling in.
This one remains tough. It will be the combination of the energy in the SW US moving across TX to join with the stalled cold front that comes through here Sunday night. The two should merge into a decent low pressure and track east. But will it be due east...or northeast? Right now, it looks like a blend of the two directions.
EURO takes the low more east. It does not show any blocking in advance of it....so takes the low out to sea. No impact on KY.
GFS however does have a tad more blocking and strong low pressure which pulls it more north. This gives KY a glancing blow with snow. GFS indicates 1" with the latest data... and close to warning criteria for SE KY.
Until we can gauge how strong the energy is diving into the SW US---it will be hard to determine how strong this low will get. Stronger low---more north track. Weaker low---due east track. Right now--we are using a blend based on what we usually see take place in these setups...a stronger low than what the EURO has...so light snow at this point is possible. Stay tuned on this one.
This will feature a wave of low pressure that will track to our north. The idea here is that we will be cold enough for snow....but the setup on the GFS looks odd to me:
It even develops a cutoff low out of this one that sits in the region for several days with light snow.
I think it was a bad run of the GFS---but I do see a low pressure in our area---and a colder system does look likely---so I will add it to the list.
Beyond this system...indications remain for wintry pattern in our area. We'll have to wait for the specifics.