Here is the latest VIDEO BLOG if you missed it.
http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=424822220928871&saved#!/photo.php?v=424822220928871
On the video, I mentioned the changes to warnings that will be coming soon to the NWS Louisville office this April. Here is a link a good video to watch that explains more about the changes that will take place. CLICK HERE.
Weather-wise...nice weekend taking place. Highs in the 40s and 50s.
It will be Monday that our next storm arrives. It arrives when the blocking pattern is in full gear.
The indices certainly match this idea.
AO--- negative--- cold air available
NAO--- negative---north Atlantic is closed for business. So our weather will come to a standstill.
PNA--- positive--- cold air will hold where it arrives.
This one will be another major snow event for KS/OK/MO. More than a foot is likely ...yet again.
For us, it will roll in on MONDAY with plenty of moisture flowing into our area. 1" rain totals are certainly possible. High temps will be a problem with this setup. I went 54 for now, but the risk for 60 is certainly there. Just depends on when the rain arrives.
This low will occlude, or lose the typical warm front/cold front look to it. The upper low then takes over as the dominant weather feature. So instead of the cold air rushing in to change the rain to snow ----it will be a top ----> down effect of cooling. This starts on Tuesday.
Wed-Fri, the cold layers will continue to cool under the upper low ...so snowflakes will become more and more common during this period. With the top/down idea--surface temps will be the last to cool down. So getting the snow to stick will be a problem...unless the snow falls at night. Even then, moisture will be quite light under this upper low. So we are talking about 1" or less snow amounts each day. But yes, in theory---we all could see a "white ground" from this setup as the week wears on. However--as far as a snow storm---no---this is not the setup for that. The cold air will stretch so far south under this upper low---that snow may fly all the way to Florida!!
Side-note: With upper lows like this..."convective" snow showers may be possible during daytime hours. Even some pretty heavy ones. But again, this would be when surface temps would likely be above freezing so impact would be limited. Just something to monitor next week.
The EURO says this pattern will not break until after the first day of spring. GFS ...is quicker ...says we will see a strong spring-like storm by the 10th.
We will deal with that part of the forecast later. For now--our focus will be on this low heading our away...the low that will hang out in our area for quite some time.
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