SnowTALK! Saturday Edition

Risks today:

1) Rest of today/tonight  1 Twix Bar  (scale of 0-10)
2) Monday afternoon/night 1 1/2 Twix Bar (scale of 0-10)
3) Valentines Day

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT
A first of a series of clippers now passing through the area this morning.  We picked up 1" at the WAVE studios so far.  Roads are slick...travel not advised this morning folks.

We will see this clipper slide east by midday...snow will ease to flurries.  This may help allow temps to rise to near 32 by early afternoon.  That would give the salt a good shot a working and lead to wet roads. 

However, the rest of the clippers will slide down in this NW flow this afternoon.  Latest HRRR model seems to be the most aggressive with this...near 4pm.  A burst with that one of about 1/2" possible.

Additional spotty snow showers behind that for tonight.

The last of this particular group..looks to push in early Sunday.  It may track a bit more south than the previous ones....but we'll fine-tune the track the that one as we gauge radar trends.

Overall--- amounts of 1-2" for the Metro for the entire event look likely.  2-4" to the north/east still look good.  And I think many even to the south have a good shot at 1" of snow from series.

Here is a map of the GRAND totals for the weekend:

Not a winter storm---but it will lead to slick roads.  So use caution.

MONDAY NIGHT
This one has trended colder and heavier since last night.
It has the chance to be an advisory level event--but it is borderline- warning level.

While the models have trended colder with this one---the rain/snow line is still within the viewing area---so that will cause amounts to be quite uncertain.

But it has potential certainly

GFS

:

GFS Snow map: ** Disclaimer*** the following snow maps will have some of tonight's tonight and Monday's included in the overall image. 

 

NAM:

NAM SnowMAP

Even the EURO shows a decent surface reflection with this----so it may have some good moisture with it.

The models look too aggressive on warming us up next week. So I am delaying the mid 40s+ weather until either Wed or Thu.  That warming trend will lead to a strong low pressure that will develop near the 9th.  That could lead to another thunderstorm threat for the Ohio Valley by the 10th.

VALENTINE'S DAY

After that storm, just like the previous one, Arctic air will move back in.  This will lead to a wintry track for us as we approach Valentines Day. 

Right now, the GFS shows a southern tracker low to our south on that day.  But the GFS has a tendency to be far south with lows in the extended...then trends them north---so not jumping up and down on this one.  But it is on the maps to be watched.

TO SUM IT UP
Light snow clippers will continue into Sunday.  Additional amounts of 1/2" to as much as 2" possible.  There will be a stronger low that will pass through the region Monday.  It will have warmer air at play---but still looks to be mostly snow.  One to watch certainly for Monday night/early Tuesday.  We will warm up late week with a rain chance.  We will see a decent warm up by the 10th with thunderstorms possible.  Then we turn colder again with a snow chance by Valentine's Day.  The ups'downs' continue.

Comments

[Philip Glenn]

This is the kind of winter I like!!!