1) Next Wednesday (twix scale 0-10) 1/2 bar
2) Next Friday/Saturday
3) February 20th
Rain is on the way ...for Sunday. It will come in 2 waves. One will be two waves, warm front and cold front. Warm front rain will pass through near 8am Sunday. Very light...and brief.
After that front passes, the winds will get gusty. And temps will be on the rise.
Then we face the cold front wave. That lead to a band of rain that will move in from the west by 3/4pm and continue into sunrise Monday. While some thunder is possible along with gusty winds---this setup isn't one for severe storms.
This one continues to be a struggle for the models. The battle remains over how the energy in the SW merges with the stalled cold front over the SE. I see the models having to adjust to this setup many many many times before we will see good model agreement.
GFS remains steadfast that this will allow for a deep enough low pressure to pull northeast and run up the coast. The westward extent of the upper low is going to be the question for us when it comes to how much of a precip shift extends into our area. Chances are certainly higher east and south.
Here is the GFS
Take this model verbatim. This would be a ligh 1-2" wet snow event...roads likely wet. Heavier snow for SE KY.
The EURO mains with the idea that this will be a weak system..and tracks nearly due east out to sea. The NOGAPS agrees with it...but the Canadian does blend more toward the GFS idea.
Having grown up here, I have seen this setup many times. I rarely have see a low move due east after picking up SW energy. It can happen, but it is rare. I think the GFS setup happen much more often for our region. So that is the direction I kept the forecast in for now. Once we nail down the track of this phased system, we can then determine precip types/amounts. We will get our first good sampling of all the players on the field coming up tomorrow---so I will have more info then.
This will an interesting system to watch. This low will be arriving at a time when the overall pattern turns cold. Quite cold. So this low will develop right over the reason along an Arctic boundary. This could lead to a wild forecast when it comes to producing snow. NO model is going to handle this concept well this far off. We will likely see some wild computer model runs the next few days...but just understand the pattern factors cyclogensis ...in a very cold pattern. Stay tuned!!
Posting this as an example of our pattern ahead. We will see plenty of cold air in play. But the southern storm track will remain active. If the storms can keep timing pretty steady...they have a good shot at being snow makers. If they space out too far---it can allow for brief warmups.
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