1) Valentine's Week
A brief, but dramatic pattern change is about to unfold. Before it does, we have one more weak system that will pass through the area tomorrow.
The clipper today squeezed out just about every ounce of moisture we had floating around today. This means the system tomorrow---will be starved. That combined with a south wind---means rain sprinkles or flurries.
Latest NAM hints at sprinkles by late day/night.
I would not be surprised to see flurries---but I do not see an accumulating snow event.
Here are the latest snow stats for Louisville:
Not that it takes much to have more than last year considering how "blah" last year was. I actually think the past couple of days have been very "wintry" around our area...and the type of days I like. Everyone can get around--and it looks "pretty" outside.
I do see a modest warm-up Wednesday with a decent surge Thursday into the 50s. A low will develop to our south at the same time---a wave will track through the Ohio Valley. GFS/EURO vary quite a bit on how those two interact.
GFS keeps them sep and quick moving.
EURO combines them into a big east coast low pressure.
If the EURO verifies---Friday would be a chilly day. Right now, it looks to be an outliner so leaned more toward the GFS as it is still early in the game.
Then we get to the weekend.
It looks like a pretty deep low pressure will develop off the lee-ward side of the Rockies. This means warm warm warm for KY.
18z GFS went more south with the low track, but 18z runs are not very reliable in long range---so only used 12z GFS for this post.
Both 12z GFS and 12z EURO have a strong low approaching late Sunday into Monday. Timing will waffle some so that will affect how unstable we will be if front passes during overnight or daytime hours. So I will stay away from showing any instability maps.
The wind fields do look impressive aloft...but not as dramatic as the previous system that came through last week. At least, not yet.
What all the models do agree on...is that this strong low pressure will once again drop us back into winter. The GFS ensembles show how the cold will take over the country Valentines Week/End.
I will say the setup for late month is different that any thing we have see this winter. The cold will have a gripe over the east--but the southern branch indicators are off the charts on the idea that a series of TX low pressures will track from TX to the Carolinas. This is way out there in time---but many of you have asked--and that is how it looks at first glance.
This pattern is full of ups/downs. If you are a snow lover---I see no sign that you should feel "winter is over". Not giving false hope---just letting you know what the indications are.
We shall see if the Groundhog is right.