Risk today:
1) February 13th-14th (southern tracker)
ODDS/ENDS
Southwest winds expected to once again do a number on our area over the next 6 days. East winds will allow for a slight drop tomorrow into the mid 40s, but the wind is back to the south/southwest Thursday and the numbers will surge. I would not be surprised to see 60 in spots. There is a weak front that will pass through the Ohio Valley Thursday night...a band of showers expected with that.
This will develop into a snowstorm for the northeast USA by Friday. EURO leads the way on that forecast---GFS playing catchup. This will allow for a cooler today Friday for us.
The weekend will feature yet another return to a southwest wind. This time--it will get aided by a developing low pressure in the Plains. That will allows for temps to surge into the 60 degree range...some will exceed that easily. Model guidance has us at 62 on Sunday. We usually beat those numbers with a south wind.
This leads to the next question. Will we see severe storms? This remains in the "chance" category for late Sunday into early Monday. The usual issues still have to resolved---how unstable will we be? Will the winds aloft be tapped into? This setup for this one is different than the big system last week. Last week we had what we call a negatively tilted trough. This is when then angle of the cold front is sharp...and slams into the area.
This system heading our way is a positively tilted---so severe risk isn't as intense due to the angle in relation to the wind direction aloft.
The GFS has a decent wind field aloft regardless...so we will watch it.
Instability has increased some now with the warm/moist flow.
Still watching to see what will happen around Valentines Day. Signs on the EURO remain that a low will develop in the GULF and head northeast. This is a classic track for an upper low to move over our area with snow. Something to certainly track/watch as the EURO has hinted at this for some time...and isn't letting go.
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