Risk today
1) February 13/14 (not within range yet for a twix scale)
ODDS/ENDS
Clouds and lack of a south wind have made it chilly at times today. But tomorrow, south winds are back--so expect a big jump up to near 60. There will be a front that will pass through tomorrow night that will bring a few rain showers. That front will feed a developing low off the NE coast for a flat out blizzard for the NE Coast. That system will keep is cool here Friday and likely Saturday.
The plains low will develop during this time and track into the Great Lakes by Monday. This will bring with it a wave of rain Sunday night/Monday. Severe threat remains in a low chance category. Notice the 10°C 850mb line on the GFS below. That is usually a good gauge of severe weather. Anywhere south of that line---severe threat increases. North---not so much. So at this stage, any threat looks to remain well to our south.
Wind fields are strong enough for severe---but certainly lower than the last event. But it can be windy all it wants...if you don't have storms tall enough to tap into it (instability) then the risk for damaging winds drops off.
Instability right now is not high at all...nearly 0.
We will keep an eye on it in case the models are "too cool" with the system and the 10° 850 line is off track. But I would say right now---a band of heavy rain will be our main issue with some gusty winds.
How this system evolves Tuesday/Wednesday will determine the issue below.
FEBRUARY 13th/14th
This has been a target date for some time regarding any chance for a snow event locally.
Here is where we stand today.
The key is energy that will dive down across the SW part of the country Monday/Tuesday. It will head due east and into the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time---it will connect to our Sunday night cold front that has already stalled at this point across the southeastern US. Where the front stalls....and how the energy tracks over the southwest will determine if this is a WEST of the Appalachian Mountains tracker...or EAST of the mountains up the coast. One means a cold rain. One means an accumulating snow event.
The snow lover---- EURO
It takes the surface low EAST of the mountains and through the Carolinas. The upper low that would be attached would track over us...and allow for dynamic cooling for the rain to change to snow in our area. Classic wet snow event.
The rain lover-- GFS
Last night, it liked the snow idea but today...it is going west of the mountains with the low. Nearly tracks it right over us.
It does head northeast and allows for heavy snow to our north..just snow showers/flurries here by the 14th.
The indicies would help usually in these setups ...but the NAO is pretty much neutral. Which gives no clear support on the west/east idea.
As usually the case, until we can gauge the Sunday night front location and the energy which will dive over the SW (it hasn't even entered our upper air network)--- we are at a toss up. This far out---that is to be expected.
Just know it is something we are tracking...and we will keep you post each day.
Otherwise, the AO is tanking...big time for late Feb. This means that Polar Vortex (core of the Arctic cold) is on the move.
GFS says---it is coming here for a visit. If so, we have to watch the southern branch of the jet stream carefully.
thanks bg for all the hard work you do...ive got family that lives in eastern mass and they have told me that they are expecting 2 to 3 feet of snow with hurricane force winds...i hate to say it but i kind of wish i was there enjoying it...its been awile since ive experienced a blizzard like that...B.O.T.S.
Posted by: jim bradley | February 07, 2013 at 10:26 AM