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STATEWIDE TORNADO DRILL
All Kentuckians are urged to participate in the statewide tornado drill. Sirens will sound at 10:07AM - don't be alarmed... it's just a test... and you should put your severe weather plan into action.
Bring on the snow. We'll we haven't seen much of it so far this season. Just under 9 inches for the season. That's below the average (up to this date) by 2.4"
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
A winter weather advisory has been posted for portions of the viewing area... including Jackson, Jennings, Ripley & Switzerland Cos., IN & Trimle & Owen Cos., KY. I wouldn't be surprised to see this advisory moved farther south on Tuesday.
SO... HOW MUCH SNOW?
Here's my latest thinking. In general the higher totals will be to our northeast and lower totals to the south. I feel like a one to three inch forecast for the areas of southern Indiana and Louisville will be possible. The higher four to six inch totals would be more in line with the current advisory area.
The models are coming into agreement. The NAM which has been the outlier is now more in-line, farther south and with more moisture. The GFS is similar. Keep in mind the 0° line is the temperature at 850hPa... and often represents the rain/snow line. Snow lovers you want that past (to the east) before the precipitation ends.
The frames below show the same time for both models. The upper left is Tuesday AM... with warm air in place scattered rain will be likely. The GFS at this point is the most robust with precipitation amounts. However, notice that as the duration goes on the NAM becomes the over achiever with more precip. Both are very similar in the placement of the center of low pressure. A track a little farther south would really put us in the hot spot for snow... however, even across central KY as is... we should be able to wrap the colder air in before the precipitation ends. For that reason I've upped the previous snow forecast just a bit. I was going a half to one inch... and now will say one to three.
HIGH RESOLUTION NAM
RANGE IN TOTALS
Here's a snapshot of previous model runs of the same models and the opposing ones... check out how much they vary. This is a tricky forecast... choosing which model is correct and why isn't always easy.