Starting to see some nice signs of spring in our pattern ahead. More on that in a moment.
First...the fog this morning is a pain. Use caution as visibilities are still running around ZERO in many locations. It will be a gradual process of the fog lifting to a stratus cloud deck later this morning...then that will erode away to sunshine. However--high thin cirrus will overtake the area by the afternoon. So our skies may never go completely "blue" today---but hazy sunshine is still expected. Just be patient if you are in a fog zone. You know how stubborn these setups can be around here.
Tonight...the rain starts to push in.
NAM HI RES hints at a cluster of rain/thunder passing along the TN/KY border after 8pm. That looks to miss most of us.
I think our highest chance will be near 2am. Rain amounts will vary from 0.00" to as much as .40"
By Sunday afternoon...rain is east...and partly sunny skies are likely to develop. I still think mid to upper 60s can be reached with the lack of cold air rushing in.
A polar front moves in on Monday with a band of light rain and colder weather. The NAM went nuts yesterday showing accumulating snow, but as pointed out on facebook---not buying that. The dry air really looks to rush in fast with this one.
The models diverage quite a bit for next Thursday/Friday with a cutoff low that tracks over the southeast USA.
EURO brings it over us with a rain event.
GFS ensembles keep it well south/east.
I kept rain chances small at this stage until we see better aggreement. Models never handle lows like this far out.
There are signs of several large storm systems developing in the weeks ahead...and the Gulf of Mexico is about to open up. It appears severe storm season is about to develop for our part of the country in the coming weeks. Part of spring I guess.
The best part about that...is the warming. EURO showing strong signals that we may hit 80 for the first time either next weekend or that Monday/Tuesday!
The clouds from the impulse passing through the state have pushed easily into Louisville. They may drift a bit more north/east..then stop. Areas in red will be the warmer areas of our region with highs well into the 50s. The blue area will struggle with the thicker clouds and light rain that will keep temps in check..some may not even hit 50 with low 50s being more likely.
I would not rule out patchy fog tonight in today's area is picking up rain. That will easily fade tomorrow afternoon with a nice jump in the highs into the mid 60s! High/cirrus clouds should start to blow in by late afternoon however as rain/storms develop west.
During the late evening/overnight...a concentrated area of rain looks to pass through. Especially for Kentucky.
By sunrise Easter Sunday, the heaviest of the rain will start shifting east as the cold front passes.
By Sunday afternoon, the front should be clear. We will see the winds shift more westerly. However, it appears the colder air will lag ...so any sunshine with the lower dewpoints can allow for a nice jump in temps for the afternoon. Most models are indicating 62-64....which is reasonable..but I would not rule out some 65-68's if the sun can come out early enough.
We still are facing a pretty strong front that will sag down Monday. Any light rain may mix with snowflakes Monday PM---but I do not see any significant from this. In fact, the dry air may rush in so fast that anything frozen would be eliminated.
The storm for late week is still showing up. It does look to be a bit more east than before...grazing Kentucky by next Thu/Fri.
Overall---a warming trend will be attempted by the end of next week and weekend.
The AO is still coming in negative. The ensembles are starting to struggle with longer term indicies. We need this to go positive to push the cold air back to the Arctic.
The NAO needs to go positive to keep ease the blocking that is aiding in the cold shots being aimed at us. It is showing signs of heading there by mid-april.
I did see one long term model that was taking a stab at Thunder---it indicated a warm weekend with a cold shot that Monday. But that is waaaaay off. Let's get through the weekend first :)
See you guys in the morning with an update!
The pattern remains very much at the mercy of the usnual southward extent of cold air and snow cover over the lower 48.
Here is the current snow cover:
Here is was last year at this time:
Eventually, the spring pattern will win out..and we can say good-bye to the cold and any snowflake chances. But we are not there...yet.
Having said that, it does look pretty good in the days ahead.
Lots of sunshine today...50-54 expected.
We should do about 4-6 degrees better than that for Friday. Though Friday will feature some clouds and showers to the south/west of Louisville.
Latest HI-RES shows this. I think the lower dewpoints will win out for most of this however keep keep impact on the low side.
Saturday looks ok with rain south and west. I think we will see enough breaks in the clouds and/or thin cirrus to allow for decent warming into the 60s.
Late Saturday night/early Sunday...you can see how 2 distinct areas of showers/storm develop.
The one to the north looks most at risk to impact our area around sunrise to about 1 or 2pm Sunday. But with a split rain flow...it would not surprise me that some of us may fit perfectly in between the two without a drop :) I kept chances at 60% for right now with that being a possibility.
Severe threat remains low...but thunder is certainly possible.
Indications still are there that dry air will rush in pretty good Sunday afternoon, but the colder air will not. Therefore---if we see sunshine Sunday afternoon---mid to upper 60s are possible. That would be a nice bonus to the day :) Obviously..if model timing is wrong here..and is slower---then highs in the 50s may be the best we can do. But right now---the faster timing has good support so we plan to go with that.
Monday/Tuesday will feature a sharp wave passing through the region. GFS has been more aggressive with the colder air meeting up with it Monday night with snow accumulation. I am not even going to bother showing the snowmap at this stage.
EURO is more aggressive with the dry air rushing in before any decent moisture is around---and keeps us dry Monday night/Tuesday.
Plenty of time to fine-tune this...but it does strongly hint at another drop in temps early next week.
The models also suggest a low will develop at the base of this sharp front....develops into a storm...and tracks up the east coast by the mid/end of next week.
Normally---this is a perfect setup for snow over KY. But it appears the cold air required for the upper low to feed on...will be locked more to the north---so this looks like a rain event at this stage. It is getting harder and harder for upper lows to drop levels low enough for snow as we push into April. Not unheard of---but harder.
I do not see warm air locking in for the season anytime soon.
The pattern is still showing signs that the indicies will favor more cool shots ahead, though least extreme. On the flip side, warm shots will start to increase..but again...not that extreme. In other words. Perhaps a "normal" spring developing.
The NAO remains negative...but is trending toward neutral. That will still allow for slow moving systems with the blocking pattern---but a bit more progressive than previous weeks.
AO ...still negative. I am suspect of the 2nd drop in the AO showing up for now. I think it will keep trending positive...slowly But until it is positive---I am not ready to say winter is DONE.
We will start to feel the effects of the warm front to our south/west the next few days. It will not push through here until the weekend, but there will be a moisture flow that will try to develop by Friday.
The latest NAM HI RES shows how storms will fire along that front. Well to our west. It does show some moistuer over our area. This is for early afternoon Friday. I am suspect that low dewpoints will lessen the effect on us...so I am going under on rain chances compared to the models. The GULF never really is going to open up to us in the coming days.
Friday night---it shows the storms weaken..and any showers near our area...fall apart. Notice the storms firing along the cold front in the Plains.
For the weekend, I switched to the GFS since the NAM can't really see that far. GFS shows a similar setup of moisture over us Saturday. I plan to keep rain chances low.
However, when the cold front arrives----rain chances start to go up. GFS has the timing of the front early in the day Easter Sunday. But notice how it thinks the rain could be split north to south...with a gap through our area. That is possible.
By afternoon ...the front is east...and NW winds take over.
So Eastern Weekend looks like this:
Saturday- partly to mostly cloudy. Few spotty showers southern areas. Highs 59-64.
Easter Sunday- showers/thunder in the morning, fading into the afternoon. Highs: 51-55
As far as severe potential. I just dont' see it.
CAPES are very low---hint at thunder potential.
WINDS are gusty aloft...but not to severe thresholds
DEWPOINTS rise...but deeper moisture remains to our south. Again---because the GULF never truly opens up.
So severe threat just looks too low for any concerns at this stage. This is good news.
This is an interesting setup as a east/west front will sag through the region that will feed into a developing low to our east.
As it does show...GFS shows the risk for rain to snow showers Monday night into early Tuesday.
GFS does take surface temps to 32 in Louisville Monday night. That, combined with nocturnal timing, would favor some very light grassy accumulations....becoming a memory Tuesday mid-morning.
Latest glance at the EURO is much faster with this setup...and only allows for snow flurries Monday afternoon with temps well above freezing.
So I plan to leave the snow out of the forecast right now---pretty early anyway. But if the GFS trend continues, wet snow showers may need to be added. (don't shoot the messenger).
Either way, it looks cooler early next week before we warm up again.
The cold and snow are getting old. We're almost a full week into spring and winter-like weather is staying past the welcome we've given it. Weather that we more commonly associate with spring is on the way but we'll have to get through a bump in the road as we begin to bring about a change for the warmer.
We're certainly in need of some warmer weather after the snow we've seen over the past couple of days. The good news is that some is on its way as an area of high pressure moves into the Gulf Coast States and pulls some warmer, moister air up into Kentuckiana. Temperatures will gradually warm each day this week until we hit 60 degrees or better by the weekend. Our "normal" high temperature for this time of year is 62 so we'll still be below average even as we warm up. That goes to show right there how cold we've been lately. High pressure will translate to sunny to partly cloudy skies for the week but a system moving in for the weekend will increase rain chances.
A shortwave disturbance at the mid levels of the atmosphere will move through the region on Sunday. As this disturbance meets up with the warmer and moister air that we'll have by that time we'll see thunderstorm chances on the increase. The latest data suggests that Saturday will be rain-free but Sunday will be filled with showers and storms. There's potential for a second round of rain later on in the day on Monday as well with another disturbance rotating around a main trough.
As we flush this second disturbance out of here on Monday into Tuesday we'll see cooler air filter in. We're talking about high temperatures that will be just over 60 degrees on Sunday descending into the 50's by Monday and ending up in the mid to upper 40's by Tuesday. It wouldn't be impossible to have a some snow flurries or a few instances of sleet as this system exits late Monday into Tuesday.
The cold snap next week likely won't last long. By the end of next week we'll probably be talking about more seasonable temperatures as the trough giving us the cold air exits to the east. Since we're quite a ways away in time from this actually happening it's not quite certain exactly how long it will take for this trough to actually get out of here. One thing that's arguing for the cold air to exit faster rather than slower next week is the NAO and AO. When the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is negative these troughs tend to stick around the Eastern US longer because they're blocked by high pressure in Greenland. When the AO (Arctic Oscillation) is negative we see more outbreaks of cold air from the north. Since both of these oscillations are forecast to trend toward neutral from the deeply negative values we've had as of late this certainly argues that we'll see the cold air and trough move out rather quickly.
So, fear not, spring weather is coming! The bump in the road to warmer weather early next week should be a short one. I know a lot of folks are wondering about our severe weather season both here in Kentuckiana and across the US as a whole since we've had so much cold weather lately. My thought on this is that the season is still on its way but the start and peak of the season may be delayed a bit. The Gulf of Mexico hasn't been able to warm up yet thanks to the cold and we won't see air temperatures recover to more typical levels over the eastern half of the US for a couple weeks. These two things will certainly give us a late start but it's unclear as to whether the severe weather season will be shorter as a whole. All I know is that I'm ready to break this winter pattern and get some warmer temperatures into Kentuckiana. Think Spring!
MARCH SNOW STORM IMPACTS THE MIDWEST, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND EAST COAST...
Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for areas along the river and into Southern IN until 8 PM. Winter Storm Warnings continue for Central Indiana.
Scattered snow showers will continue late this morning through early tomorrow. Temperatures will slowly warm and sleet and or light rain will mix in with the scattered snow today. At times, bursts of heavy snow will develop...enough to quickly cover up grassy areas. Untreated roads and overpasses will be a mess today. Treated roads should have minimal problems. Within the impressive bursts of snow expect low visibility. The winds, gusts to 35 miles per hour, will blow the snow around at times which will only add insult to injury. As temperatures fall again this evening any snow on the ground will re-freeze and cause some slick spots tonight and into early tomorrow morning.
Additional inch or so of accumulating snow is possible within any of these bands of snow. The heaviest of the snow fell in our far Northern counties into Central IN. Parts of Central Indiana picked up 10 inches of snow! A handful of inches fell in our far Northern counties, and lingering snow showers this morning have produced an additional 1-2" area wide. Stay tuned to WAVE 3 and WAVE3.com for the latest on this unusual March snow system.
Some folks in the northern part of the viewing area have seen a little snow this evening, but most of us will have to wait until the overnight period as a break in the precip moved in earlier. Winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings are still in effect, but to be honest, it doesn’t look too impressive for anyone in KY (including Louisville).
Most of the counties in Indiana along the Ohio River will end up with 1”-3” by tomorrow night (about half that in the morning), but some counties in Indiana will get more. I’m looking at 3”-5” for Orange, Washington, Lawrence, Jackson and Jennings Counties by Monday evening… they will only have about half this by morning, the other half comes during the day tomorrow. I expect some delays and closings tomorrow, but I seriously doubt that JCPS will be affected. Most KY schools and businesses (including Louisville) will be impacted minimally with less than an inch for viewers in KY by morning… 1”-2” by tomorrow evening.
Tonight: Rain changes to snow. Light accumulation by morning. Low 32.
Tomorrow: Light snow showers off and on. About an inch additional accumulation for Louisville (more to the north, less to the south). High 36. Low 29.
Tuesday: Slight chance of a snow shower early, then mostly cloudy. High 40. Low 30.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 44.
SNOW OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
LESS THAN AN INCH BY MORNING IN KY, POSSIBLY MORE IN INDIANA
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
Well, my second attempt at re-typing this. Sigh.
Anyway... the system we have been tracking and watching flip flop on models...is about to arrive.
First leg of it is moving through this morning with some sleet/snow mixing in at times.
NWS has alerts out for the next event tonight into Monday.
To examine this portion, I decided to use a good short-term model that updates often with real time info ingested. So here is the latest from the HI-RES NAM model.
Between 6-8pm this evening...it shows that a line of thunderstorms may actually develop on the SE side of this low. That will be interesting to see if it can materialize as storms like that can feed into thundersnow to the north. Watch out INDY! Thundersnow has already been reported in Missouri. Some of our northern counties may stay in the snow zone...so they will have to be watched for thundersnow as well.
Then the core of the low moves on top of us. We may see a dry slot take over for areas along the Ohio River with snow wrapping to the south and north.
That will fill in as the main low then slows down...and starts to drift south. This would be on Monday. Notice the lack of yellows however. So the snow rates will be lighter than what will take place tonight and early Monday.
The GFS/NAM snow maps have been entertaining to say the least the past few days. The debate on the large swings has been the track of this upper low...and whether or now the thundersnow band would wrap tighter into Louisville..or more toward Indy.
Here are the latest maps from both.
Both still vary..even this close. So we will have to track the next 12 hours carefully. I will say that we are running colder than the models indicated this morning. That will have to be watched when the "thunderstorms" develop later.
Here is our forecast as it stands now. I broke it down from the snow bands tonight.
And the snow bands Monday and Tuesday.
In general, everyone has a shot at snow here. But the heaviest will certainly be with the upper low as it passes through. The banding/thundersnow features tonight will by far be the gold stars on snow amounts. Our northern counties need to be alert to this...and the counties along the Ohio River need to be aware of it.
We will update the trends throughout the day/night.
Stay close :)