Interesting few days ahead as we have a complicated setup with a surface low and upper low. You can get "errors" with model data in these situations...so we have to tread carefully with the data.
Overall setup...
Surface low moving toward us from the Plains. It is outpacing the upper low to the north by about 6 hours or so. There is no true Arctic air in play...so the surface low only will run into "stale" cold air this morning that may allow for some snow/sleet to come down through the afternoon. Eventually, that "stale" cold air will erode away and the surface low warmth will win out ----rain is likely tonight and most of Tuesday.
But by Tuesday, the upper low gets a chance at the area. It will be in the process at this time time of transferring its energy to the surface low (now near DC at this point) so that the low near DC becomes quite the strong area of low pressure. We will still feel the effects of the upper low however before it leaves us. It likely will have the ability to bring down the cold air aloft (again...no Arctic air from the north to pull into it) to allow for snow. So the path of this upper low will determine who gets the heaviest of the snowfall.
Right now, that appears to be north and east of our area. Having said that..the EURO/and most recent NAM/ are trying to track the upper low a bit closer to us this morning. Something worth watching.
Here are the soundings.
GFS:
It indicates the sleet/snow chance today through this early evening
Then rain after midnight
Then back to snow with the upper low Tuesday evening
NAM
It is slower with the surface low. So no impact until tonight. All rain
It shows a dry slot develoing during Tuesday.
Then we get some light snow with low level moisture Tuesday night/early Wednesday.
OVERALL:
GFS says less than 1"
NAM says no snow accumulation
My thinking? I am not buying the NAM solution already based on the radar this morning. It already shows sleet/snow to our west. So GFSseems to be the way to go of the two models right now. I have seen upper lows like this really enhance as they curl up over us before heading east. If that happens...someone could easily pick up at 2-4" snowfall. Not everyone, but some. Otherwise--- 1-2" looks to be more common for northern KY and southern IN. That would be Tuesday night. So I will be watching for that risk carefully.
*** THIS ONE COULD HAVE SURPRISES WITH IT.....
That is all for now....many updates later today.
Enjoy your day!
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