As you know by now, the models took a shift overnight. Question now is...will it stick or is this just the typical model flip flopping tease? We will know today of course. But I will say this, just about all the models are in near excellent agreement. That is rare around here...so confidence is pretty high on an accumulating snow event here.
Here is the latest.
First..the energy involved is pretty impressive. Deep 500 mb low really digging into the TN. Both GFS/NAM show it well.
*CLICK IMAGES TO SEE LARGER
The trend last night was to bring the colder air in faster...and keep the upper low more south. The best chances for the cold/deep moisture to meet up looks to be mainly east of I 65.
GFS later this evening NAM
By Wednesday morning...we have the backlash snow of the upper low. This can lead to banding. We will have to watch that carefully. But additional accumulations expected from this.
HPC has us in teh 40-60 % range for at least 4" of snow...higher north, lower south.
As Kevin mentioned...main thinking right now is 1-3" for metro.. up to 6" northeast. Lesser south/southwest.
I am working on an updated snowmap...that will be out this morning during the shows.
No word yet from NWS on weather alerts that will be issued...I suspect they will be issued either this morning or afternoon.