This post will mainly focus on the storm for next Tuesday. I haven't had time to look at much beyond that.
But before I get to that...it is important to note today's date. By now, many of you know this is the 1 year anniversary of the March 2nd Tornado Outbreak that impacted the Ohio Valley and southeast US.
Here are the storm reports from that day:
Out of those 160 tornado reports (sightings)... 70 have been confirmed to have been touchdowns.
40 people lost their lives that day.
In our viewing area, 11 lives were lost across southern Indiana. To the east...near Lexington... 22 lives were lost.
The strongest tornado was an EF-4...which hit Henryville. It was the strongest of all of 2012 in the United States.
I know personally for me---this was a tough day as it was the first time in my career that I have worked in a TV station AND have my family in the same area. I know some made fun of me because I ran off set when my mom called. But for me...knowing a funnel cloud was spotted heading toward Mt Washington KY--- Mom comes first. She turned out ok...with hail damage to her roof the main impact.
My brother and his family live in Henryville. I had no communication with them until days after. They were just north of the path of the tornado..and were spared. They knew how lucky they were...and have been volunteering their time to the community ever since to help.
So when you see us on TV trying to do the best we can to inform you..when we say we are here to PROTECT YOU...we mean that. Because it is personal for us...as we have all grown up here.
Below is a video that was actually shot that day before the tornadoes started touching down. I didn't even notice the camera around me for most of this. When you have a million things on your mind---you block out things around you at times. Anyway, it sums up our emotions that day...and how we tried to do what we could to help get the word out. Please take a moment to watch. And as you do---just know we will be there for you guys each and every time. You are part of the WAVE family.
We will be up in Henryville today for the Parade at 130pm and flag dedication afterwards. Please come up and say "hi" if you see us.
Much difference March 2nd for sure. The snow showers will remain/off/on today. Some hints of sun at times---but that will only enhance the snow squalls in the area. Light accumulations still remain possible in the heavier bursts. We should see a drier/sunnier day Sunday.
This is yet another storm of frustration. But as always, we will dive right into the details.
First off..it is not in our upper air network just yet. It is located just west of SW Canada. There are actually 2 pieces to this setup. I didn't highlight the 2nd one...but it is located just west of California.
The northern piece should enter the upper air network later tonight and early Sunday. That is when our weather balloons will launch into it.
We have several balloon networks for it to get sampled.
The "vort" or main point of energy with this...will dive southeast into the Plains by Tuesday morning. The southern piece will quickly catch up and head into the southern Plains.
Then the 2 will merge (in theory) right over Kentucky. This will allow for a deepening area of low pressure.
So that is how it looks in the upper layers of our atmosphere, now let's look at the lower layers...which matter more.
The GFS brings the low in Tuesday. There is a warm surge ahead of it..that this "vort" will likely have a leading edge of rainfall with it.
But Tuesday night, the colder side of this new low takes over. Precip rates will be crucialon snow amounts. If it deepens enough, snow amounts could become impressive...especially with the snowfall taking place during the overnight hours into early Wednesday.
It does merge the two "vorts" to an extent...but it keeps the deformation zone (best area for heavier snow) well to our north. NAM has rain to light snow for us at face value. But in the NAMs defense, this is the first run that can actually see out that far in time...and it doesn't have balloon data yet.
The EURO has certainly been the most consistent of the group. It still places the low to our east/south...but only at about 1010mb. Which is decent..but not impressive. Again, you want a deeper low to enhance precip rates to get colder air more involved on the NW side. If you want snow that is.
The EURO does deepen the heck out of this low near DC by Wed/Thu. That would be quite the snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic. I am sure they are biting their nails more than we are right now.
The CMC (Canadian) model is also pretty aggressive. It bombs the low faster...and closer to KY. This would put down several inches in our viewing area. BOTS!
Pretty similiar on track overall..but vary still with amounts.
There has been some concern about the NAO and it losing that negative signal...leading to the northern feature going more east and ignores the southern one...never linking up. AKA---rain.
Here is the NAO today...
I think it is verifying okay. Obviously is negative. It is trending toward neutral showing the block is about to give way over the northern Atlantic ...allow for storms to track more out to sea --rather than dig deep into the southeast USA. But I don't see the impact being large enough at this time.
Anytime you have a northern branch feature trying to link up with a southern branch...you have a HUGE margin of error. And the models do very very poor in these setups.
So here are questions we have to answer:
1- Does the northern vort meet up and phase with southern vort? (the sampling tonight will tell us where they current "are located" so that we can gauge their speed for a meeting point...or does one get there too soon and misses the ride.
2) if they phase--- how deep of a low are we talking? 1010? 1008? 1000? mb That will make a huge difference on number 3
3) precip rates. especially on the NW deformation zone of the potential low. This will be THE zone to watch for significant snowfall potential
4) how much bread and milk to buy? If you are out of it, buy some. Otherwise..no need.
5) will there be school tomorrow? No. It is Sunday.
It will be fun for weather nuts like us here at WAVE to track the model runs tonight and especially tomorrow. We just need some hardcore data into the models to bite on...otherwise..its just all "chatter".
I will post snowmaps all day/evening on my twitter page BGOODEWAVE3 so made sure to follow me on there so you see them show up on your feed. You don't have twitter? Time to sign up! It is FREE and takes just seconds and GREAT info on there.
For facebook friends---I will put out some thoughts/discussions on the model trends. WAVE3Weather and BRIANGOODEWAVE3 are the pages I update there.