Morning snow showers continue to our east/southeast. Several spots picked up an inch with slick spots. While some of you...saw nothing. We seem to have more issues with travel in these setups than anything.
Here is the latest visible satellite image. Clearing skies have taken over most areas---including Louisville. But snow showers continue across Franklin/Henry/Shelby/Green/Taylor/Marion counties as I am typing this. So watch for slick spots for a bit longer.
Focus now shifts to the next storm.
Remember the vort maxes I showed yesterday? There are 2 pieces of energy heading our way that will merge as one. The northern feature is the strongest...and finally got sampled last night. The model runs that are coming in now will reflect the first real data from the weather balloons. So we will see if there are any changes...if any at all.
I will update my TWITTER feed with the new model runs as they come in today. My handle is BGOODEWAVE3
I will post the most recent data I have for now.
The GFS shows the 2 pieces Monday.
They merge into one main low Tuesday.
Wednesday, the main low gets cutoff in the blocking pattern.
Looking at the soundings for this period.
Initially, moisture will increase Monday over the area. Some of it will be virga (precipon radar that doesn't reach to ground level) but more than likely, that initial precip will fall as sleet and snow. Temps should be above freezing in many spots by this period.
GFS shows the profile on borderline sleet/snow by midday Monday
GFS keeps the colder profile in tact through 7pm Monday
Then warms us overnight...to a rain profile.
Tuesday looks like all RAIN until 7pm. Then the colder air of the upper low kicks in..back to snow we go. Snow showers likely to continue into early Wednesday.
Here is the overview of the entire event. Snow accumulation wise--- less than an inch. But like we are seeing this morning...even a small amount may cause problems---we will have to watch Wed morning carefully.
The NAM is updating right now for the 12z run..so all I have is the older run to go by for now.
It does not bring in ANY precip until late Monday/early Tues. It bets on the idea of more virga than anything and is much slower in timing of this storm system.
NAM actually dry slots us Tuesday afternoon. You can see the temp (red) and moisture (green) lines separate on the sounding. This indicates the center of the upper low is likely to be right on top of us.
This is where the NAM stops. It cannot see past this period, but I would suspect it would have snow showers Wednesday on the back side. Light amounts.
The EURO is pretty similar actually. Brings the low right over us. Rain to light snow.
Then creates a decent snow event for the Mid-Atlantic late Wednesday/Thursday.
LATEST THINKING: These setups are always a challenge when you have 2 streams of energy merging...especially right over us. The trend as of late is that this merging will happen just after it passes I65. So we will face the surface low first (mostly rain). Then we face the upper low (mostly snow). The deformation band of the upper low looks to be the sweet spot for heavy snow. 6-12" likely in that zone. That looks to be across IL to IN to OH. Mainly along and north of I 70. We will just get a glancing blow from that upper low late Tues/early Wed. So this is where I drew the snow threat:
If you want that heavy snow, we have to get that upper low to dig deeper than forecast. The trend has been more north with each model run so far...so we will see if the addition of the balloon data will support that trend ...or adjust it sound for snow lovers to have a panic attack :)
The northerly idea is a common path in these setups...so I think that is most likely at this stage.
SIDE NOTE: The sleet/snow for Monday as the initial wave moves in will have to be watched. The models have been too warm the past few days...so there is a chance they will be too warm tomorrow. So this very well could be a snow to rain to snow deal. Messy huh?
Again, I will keep facebook/twitter updated as data rolls in just so everyone has the latest info.
After this storm...we will warm up quite a bit toward the weekend. 60s are likely.
There is a low that follows that warm up---but I don't see a high thunderstorm risk there..but I do see a potent storm near the first day of Spring (2oth). But that is way out there.
Even I am ready for the warm up next weekend. Time to shave Nemo.