Update on Snow

Still expecting accumulating snow tonight, but it remains pretty obvious heaviest will be north.

Here is the setup this afternoon.

Rain bands will keep passing through along with the fog.  There is a band of heavy wet snow on the back side of this rain.  That band will push northeast and arrive in the Metro in the 5pm-7pm range it appears.  It may snow hard enough to overcome the warm ground to turn grassy areas white and car tops.  Roads will remain wet.

Then for most of the evening---little if anything will fall from the sky.  Spotty snow showers will be possible.  Latest RUC model shows that trend.  Anything steady that falls should remain closer to I -70.

Then after midnight, we face the comma head of the low upper low as it passes by.  The extent of this "comma" is key on snow amounts.  I have seen these wrap up so tight before that many areas get missed on any snow.  And I have seen some expand to include a large area with banding features.  This, by far, is the main challenge in the forecast.

The latest RUC does show the best chance for the comma head snows will be after 2am through about 8am.  It extends it to about Hardin County on this model.

I posted the NAM snowmap early.  It looks overdone to me.  The NAM has overdone snow amounts many times this winter.  Here is the GFS snowmap.

I think it looks a bit more realistic.  So here is our latest thinking.  I did a mix of the NAM/GFS as I think the GFS isn't accounting for that risk for banding features that may certainly add a quick 1/2" to 1" to the GFS totals.

This is not a major storm...just will have a high impact due to timing.

The worst of the driving will be after midnight through the morning rush. 

Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for most areas (except Grayson/Hart) until 1pm Wed.

NWS may trim/adjust counties with the 4pm update.  So make sure to tune into Kevin at 5pm.

WAVE 3 Sunrise will start 1/2 hour early tomorrow at 4am with the latest.

See you then!

Comments

[Mike S]

It will be interesting to see how a strengthening storm system interacts with the arrival of colder air in the region. Do agree heaviest generalized accumulations north and east. Still, banding will occur over a 12 hour period. Just a couple of the stronger bands could put down a quick 2" in addition to whatever else falls during that period. I'm going with 2-5". Louisville Int'l closer to 3-4".