MID MORNING UPDATE:
Forecast looks on track as we move into this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms look to build up after lunch into the mid afternoon period. Latest data still very weak on severe weather issues as several of the ingredients are displaced from one another. So that leave us mainly with some isolated cases of downburst winds, but even that doesn't look like a big issue.
Hopefully you will get rain out of this front today. We are about to enter a long stretch of dry weather.
Clouds early in the day will break up to allow for some sunshine. Winds look breezy at times with gusts near 20mph from the N/NE possible. The sky will try to turn all the way blue, but with low level moisture slow to push out, cumulus clouds are likely to develop and replace the clear zones. Still a nice mix of clouds and blue sky to make for a very pleasant afternoon tomorrow.
Lots of sunshine.
Highs struggle through the 70s/low 80s Friday...inch upward a few degrees each day to a point of pushing 90 by Labor Day.
Same issues with the lows. 50s/60s early on...increasing to around 70 by Labor Day morning.
Overall, one of the best holiday weekends in awhile!
EARLIEST ALERT OUTLOOK:
The video below will explain the setup for this. I do see us turning hot. But just how hot and for now long remains the complicated factor. The tropics will play a role in the jet stream pattern as well.
There is the potential for TD9/Hermine to get pulled back into the northern latitudes later next week. That may very well lead to another deep trough into our area by the 10th or so.
We will just trend that carefully as the tropics evolve. We have seen how well the models have handled TD9/Hermine so far :)
EARLY MORNING UPDATE:
Today is the day of the cold front arrival!
This means an increase in cloud cover compared to previous days. Thunderstorms expected to develop in a very scattered fashion ahead of the front this afternoon.
I don't see much of a severe t-storm threat with this setup. Looking at the latest sounding which is a profile of our atmosphere from the ground up to the upper levels of our atmosphere...
#1- CAPES: instability is there, but far from impressive
#2- WIND SHEAR: weak. 40kts is the preferred level for severe wind potential. Gusts of 30-40mph are possible today, however.
#3- DLCAPE: Roughly 700. Once we get into 1000 we start to watch for downburst winds. This sounding is showing weaker levels.
#4- WIND: weak flow out of the NW at the surface and doesn't elevate much at all as you go up into the upper layers. Hence the lower WIND SHEAR values.
The best news will be what is behind that front. But it won't rush in quickly.
Thursday will be a transition day of clouds early easing to a more partly sunny sky by the midday/afternoon. Temperatures will hold nearly steady with only a slight climb in the afternoon period.
You will begin to feel the cool air for sure by Friday morning:
Friday afternoon looks sunny and pleasant:
And the coolest morning of this break looks to be Saturday morning with lots of 50s. Look how close the 40s are?!? :)
Speaking of chilly...notice how far south the rain/snow (blue) line is on the models by mid-September. Oh yes, the change of the season is not far off my friends!