No graphic for this today. But looking at a potential rain to snow setup next Thursday. Possibly a day of flurries and/or snow showers that Friday.
Our graphic system is getting updated today so I will have to do this the old fashioned way :)
Quiet. Seasonable temps after today with 30s at night and 40s/50s during the day. Clouds should increase more on Saturday.
A weak wave will pass through from sunrise to sunset. The question here is how cold will be at the surface and aloft?
How Saturday turns out will answer those questions...but looking just a model data for now here is the current data trends:
Sunday morning---moisture passes through. Temperatures just above freezing at the surface and above freezing through about 890mb. Which would be a chilly rain.
Sunday afternoon--- chilly showers continue. We have temps in the mid 40s now...but we may have to lower them a bit more as we get closer.
Here is what to watch for: this is a sounding of the atmosphere in Louisville Sunday afternoon. The green line is moisture....red is temperature. And you look at this from the ground up.
1: the green/red touch in the snow growth zone as we call it. So we are saturated at that level.
2: There is a gap in the lower levels. Dry air. As precipitation falls through that....it could bring down the temperature of the lower layers in place # 3.
What does this all mean? Light precipitation event. It still looks to be a cold rain to me for now. But there is at least some wiggle room to drop the temps aloft to the point of a wintry mix of some sort. Ground temps will be above freezing so this would not be a travel issue. Just something to monitor.
We have another system Monday into Tuesday. Rain.
Another one Tuesday into Wednesday: Rain.
And then finally the one for next Thursday into Friday. This is the one that has the best potential for wintry weather for some of the area.
The models at least show the potential for some wrap around cold air on Thursday for the rain to change to a brief period of snow and then scattered flurries after that. But the speed of the parent low will determine this. GFS has a sharper angle to the north as a deeper low (sees more of a block). EURO is more progressive and sees less of a block. I would ignore both actual model runs from last night and just look at other factors surrounding the setup for now.
At the moment, the NAO is showing signs of turning more neutral or even positive at that time. Which would give the EURO idea some credit.
As I always say, this one needs more time in the oven. But at least it has a promising signal to at least put us on the board for a trace of snow (or more).
One day at a time!
I will show more tomorrow when I have more time and graphics to show.