I will just skip right to the 2 main features on the board.
# 1 This Weekend:
The trends since my last post are for a faster system. This cuts down on its moisture content as it will not have as much time to enjoy those south winds from the Gulf of Mexico. And it will affect timing by a few hours.
The latter is what concerns me as the cold air that arrives Thursday/Friday will be still lingering on Saturday. So the question then becomes how much of it is still "hanging out" later Saturday night into early Sunday. Not only the amount of it coverage-wise, but also the depth of it. That would determine if the onset of this system is freezing rain/sleet or snow. Or if no cold air is left by that point, plain rain.
What I have noticed around here is that borderline setups like this usually favor a low end freezing rain risk along I-64. Especially in the valleys where the cold air is trapped a bit longer. I say low-end as the temps would support a light icing of elevated objects, not as much for the roads.
Areas to the northeast around say North Vernon/Madison to Carrollton tend to have snow to start off then can be stubborn to transition as warmer air moves in.
One thing is a blaring trend on the models....the warm air eventually wins. So the issue we have on our plates (as of today) is the onset of this system. What type? Where? How much? All good questions. I have theories....many mets I am sure do at this point. But no one really knows yet until we get more data to work with.
With it being a Sunday AM event...hopefully travel impacts will not be a huge issue. We should see some warming by the time church services begin.
So at this time, the window of "concern" for some wintry weather looks to be roughly midnight Saturday night through 8am Sunday. Hopefully we can get more specific on this very soon. But at least you have a general idea of how it is looking.
These setups are frustrating as they can lead to surprises. And disappointments. Depending on which side of the fence you are on :)
#2 Next Week:
The potential is there for quite the dynamic week of weather in our area. It involves 2 areas of low pressure. They will roll out Tuesday and leave us by Thursday.
The question here is do they roll out at once, or is the second one delayed a bit?
The overall theme is for us to turn windy/warm ahead of them. Then a period of rain and perhaps t-storms (too early to speak on severe aspects). Then colder air with rain going to snow.
Normally with a one-low deal the "ending as snow" is brief and not significant.
However, if we end up with a two-low deal, that second low could enhance the colder air along with moisture.
Let's just hope the models are indeed seeing "two" lows and not just one. That can happen this far out.
We'll see. Heck, we gotta get this weekend system figure out first! :)