The atmosphere is slowly adding moisture over the next 36 hours. Today, it is aloft...which will lead to passing cirrus clouds. Low-level moisture will lag...so another dry and very warm day ahead. Dewpoints will increase a tad along our western edges of WAVE Country so I have added a 10% risk for a downpour there today.
Saturday looks similar except the low level moisture will increase just a hare (ha!) area-wide. But there will lack a trigger (other than heating of the day), so I have it looks isolated.
Easter is when we do have a trigger in the form of a cold front moving in from the NW. This will increase the shower/t-storm potential quite a bit as it moves in. There remains a small risk for a shower early in the day, but the overall risk still looks to be midday/afternoon as we warm up well into the 70s and perhaps 80s in some spots. We will have to watch for pulsing t-storms that could produce a strong wind gust and/or pea size hail. Not a big deal on the severe threat idea, but juuuuuust enough of a setup for an isolated warning. We'll watch that.
Next week looks busy with multiple low pressures passing through with showers and thunderstorms. It is too early to nail down any severe potential due to timing issues with the models (overnight t-storms vs afternoon t-storms).
Thunder Over Louisville still looks tough to call with a strong low pressure to our west that will be approaching during that period. Stay close for updates on that ...
Here is the video update!