There is a lot to track over the next 7 days. So the video is the best way for me to explain all of this (that is below).
Here is a summary of the items ahead for us:
Isolated showers/thunder later. More of a complex of rain this evening. Mainly Ohio River/south issue, with low-end chances elsewhere
Warm front moves back north. Scattered t-storms will be possible as we warm back up into the 75-83 degree range across the area (depending on the clouds/rain locations)
Fully in the 'warm sector'. Unstable enough for a few pop-up t-storms. Any one of those could briefly turn severe, but coverage will be limited due to a lack of forcing/trigger. 80s likely.
Timing issues with a cold front. Overall theme is for a round of t-storms later in the afternoon into the evening. Wind shear is just at the threshold for a few severe wind gusts. So there is a potential outlook from SPC coming for those one. Not a huge deal, but it could get busy with a few warnings depending on which timing/model you go with.
Looks quiet, and cooler. Likely in the 60s (models have us in the 40s/50s...that looks too cool for daytime highs)
Saturday (Thunder Over Louisville):
The most challenging of all the items. Of course.
We will have 3 issues that day. The warm front. The cold front and the track of the low pressure that will control those.
As it stands now, it appears the warm front will be our biggest thorn. If it is too slow, expect a cool/rainy air show and perhaps even into the fireworks.
If it speeds up enough to push north by midday, we stand a decent change to warm into the 70s (perhaps 80s) with only a small thunderstorm risk with main rain later that night.
If the system tracks too fast altogether, we will have the warm front early in the day then the rain/thunder in the afternoon/evening. Which would severely impact both parts of the day.
If the low itself tracks RIGHT OVER us, then the fronts won't matter. It will become rainy and cool/chilly most of the day/night.
I would not alter plans yet. A few hours and 60 miles change in track can alter each of the above.
Looks cooler and perhaps wet. Highs may not get out of the 50s.
I do not see any frost potential as it stands now with the pattern ahead, but a few nights in the lower 40s may be possible.
Here is the video update!