The overall setup is becoming "clearer" but the details in specific times remains with low confidence. And it is those times that we need to nail down.
Let's start with today.
Very warm. If we can mix dewpoints down to about 54/56°, we should be able to push the limits of today's record high of 87.
Thunderstorms will develop over IN first after 3 or 4pm. Some could be strong/severe. Then this broken area of t-storms will work south into Kentucky through the evening. Not everyone will pick up a strong t-storm. In fact, some of you may not experience a storm at all. This line will have several gaps in it. Keep that in mind.
Friday is actually trending better. I think we can get some sunshine at times with lots of dry time. I raised the high to 70 but we may get back into the mid 70s if enough sun action takes place.
Friday night looks to be a different story. Rain/thunder increases.
Saturday remains the challenge.
The track of the low continues to waiver a bit. That isn't unusual this far out, but even 20-40 mile shifts in the track mean BIG differences for a given location. Like Louisville for example.
The trends remain for the heaviest of rain early in the day through early afternoon near the core of the low. The details are simple with the low itself. If you are south/southeast of it...expect 60s/70s with thunderstorms. If along it, rain/some thunder and 50s/60s and if north of it, rain and 40s/50s.
We may find ourselves with all 3 of these experiences in WAVE Country Saturday afternoon. So you can see why any shifts in the track can really change the outcomes.
While you can still get clouds on along/south of the track, there are more ceiling breaks on that side. So it can improve rapidly from time to time. So that would be the best case deal for us to get the air show in and even the fireworks. Otherwise, we will be in a more nimbostratus cloud deck which can be very low and solid. That would be the worst.
So far, we are trending toward the nimbostratus setup but we cannot lock that in just yet.
We are watching it all closely. Expect more updates/changes.
Here is the video update!