Weather Blog

Earliest Alert Monday Edition

 

DISCUSSION

The second half of this week is where all the weather action will be.  
Today/Tomorrow...very warm to hot levels return.  Louisville stands a better chance at crossing 90 degrees tomorrow.  The first small rain chance shows up in the forecast tomorrow afternoon at just 10%. Otherwise, we will remain dry.

Wednesday/Thursday...more humid and more cumulus clouds in the skies above.  This should keep highs generally in the mid/upper 80s.  Spotty thunderstorms will develop on the radar both days during the peak heating of the afternoon.

Friday...strong cold front moves in.  Still some timing issues with this, but a period of rain/thunder looks likely.  Too early to pinpoint any severe potential but it appears areas east of I-65 stand a great potential as of today.

WEEKEND
We do it again.  Highs in the 70s/80s Saturday with blue skies.  Lows in the 50s/60s at night.
Sunday will be just a bit warmer. (just like this past weekend)

The pattern looks to repeat itself again as we move toward mid-August...but how long can we keep this up?

Here is the video update!

 

 

Earliest Alert Friday Edition

DISCUSSION

Short-term:
Low pressure will drive in the cold front from the northwest later this afternoon/evening.  There that NW pushes into central KY is where a few gusty t-storms may pop later on.  This looks to be south/east of Louisville at this time.  Nothing major. Still watch for those heavy downpours as they will be torrential in nature and make it hard to see when driving.
The weekend still looks fantastic.

Long-term:
The warm trend next week looks to be slow/gradual with a dry setup overall.  That will change later next week into the following weekend as we will flirt with 90 degrees, increase humidity, and watch for thunderstorms as a cold front moves in.
That front make knock us down again near the 5th with upper 70s/lower 80s for highs.

As we move toward mid-month, the heat is going to try to build back in, but so far the data shows the dip in the jet stream over us will likely win out.  This would translate to an active pattern of a cold front ever 3-4 days and rain chances at those times as well.  It doesn't mean the 90s are done, but perhaps the upper 90s are.  

We shall see.

Here is the video update!

 

 

StormTALK! Thursday Edition

DISCUSSION:

Watching the radar trends today/tonight...

The main issue will be a small low pressure that will spin its way across WAVE Country this evening.  That is when our main rain chance will kick in.  Anything before that will be clusters of thunderstorms that will pop from any heating of the day we gain. And there won't be much with so much cloud cover, but even a small amount combined with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s can lead to rapid development of strong thunderstorm cells that can produce strong wind gusts and torrential rainfall.

I need to stress, the rainfall amounts will NOT be uniform.  Some locations will pick up just .10-.25" while the next county over will pick up 2.50" of rain.  It will be those locations we will need to monitor  for any flash flooding.  

Expect very little movement in the thermometer tonight with so much moisture in the air.

FRIDAY:
The back side of the low/front will keep the clouds around much of the day.  Spotty showers look more of an issue along/east of I-65 through the early afternoon.  The more northwest you are...the quicker you will dry out and also gain some sunshine.  Those of you to the southeast may not pick up much sun at all.

WEEKEND:
Still looks fantastic.  We have highs listed as 82/85 for Saturday/Sunday, but that is mainly for the Metro.  Many of you away from the city will stay in the 70s all day Saturday and barely into the 80s Sunday.  Lows in the 50s look fairly widespread as well.  The Metro will likely hover in the lower 60s.

NEXT WEEK:
Very slow warming trend.  Moisture will gradually increase as well.  Anytime you come out of a dry air mass like the one this weekend, expect a delay in getting moisture back for rain chances.

Having said that, it does appear rain chances will be needed about a week from today.  Could we hit 90 next week? Yeah, that is possible, but upper 80s are more likely.  Either way, no signs of that 96 or 98 degree stuff.  Let's hope we don't see those signs show up again..but I know better.

Here is the video update!

 

 

StormTALK! Wednesday Edition

DISCUSSION:

 Rest of today/tonight:
Warm front moves in.  Isolated t-storm risk for our SW edges of WAVE Country.
Quite warm tonight as we barely drop below 80 degrees in Louisville.

Thursday:
The track of these impulses will be key.  Latest thinking is the first one will track just far enough north in the morning to keep the rain chance limited to our northern counties.  Dry and warming up elsewhere.
In fact, the potential is there for those along/south of I-64 to push into the lower 90s.  
That first impulse will drag a cold front in by the late afternoon/evening.  This is when the severe potential kicks in.  Damaging winds with bowing segments will be an issue.  Tornado threat is low.

Thursday night:
Another impulse tracks along the front...which will become horizontal by this point.  This will lead to "training" of the t-storm clusters.  Flash flooding threat will be a concern.  Some impressive rian totals may take place if some locations get hit several times.  Severe risk should shift to southern/western Kentucky by this stage.  

Friday:
The moisture will take its sweet timing leaving.  Clouds are a good bet for much of the day. The showers may stick around as well for some.  We'll keep you updated on that.

Weekend:
No issues.  Fantastic!

Here is the video update!

 

 

StormTALK! Tuesday Edition

 

DISCUSSION:

Main discussion will be on Thursday.

Until then...  
A few clouds this afternoon. Any pop-up showers look limited to our SW edges of WAVE Country.  We will finally get to stay below 90 degrees.
Wednesday will feature a warm front by the afternoon.  That will allow the 90s to return and the heat index near 100 degrees.  An isolated t-storm possible as the front slides through.

THURSDAY:
Multiple waves of energy will pass through during this day.  The first will be early in the day.  There is a risk for scattered t-storms for the AM commute or just after.  
There will be a break by late morning or early afternoon.  That break is key.  If we do not see much of one, the next round with the actual cold front will not be impressive in terms of severe weather. However, if we do see a break and gain some instability...severe risk will go up late afternoon/evening.  All modes of severe weather would be on the table.  Flash flooding likely to be the higher one...especially for southern Indiana.

FRIDAY/WEEKEND:
The front will slide into TN on Friday.  So our southern counties may take a while to dry out/clear out.  Northern areas will benefit first.  Very pleasant setup for the weekend.

Here is the video update!

 

 

Earliest Alert Monday Edition

DISCUSSION:

I will break this up into time periods again.

This afternoon:
A few downpours will pop on the radar due to a couple of boundaries in the area.  One to the north.  And to the south.  Many will get missed.

Tuesday/Wednesday:
Lower humidity values.  Pleasant overall.  80s Tuesday, back into the 90s Wednesday.

Thursday/Friday:
A strong cold front will move in with a period of thunderstorms. Some could be strong. But too early to determine if they would become severe.  Stay tuned on this.

WEEKEND:
Fantastic.  Low humidity.  Blue skies. 80s during the day and 50s/60s at night.  Plan accordingly :)

The long term does feature another change.  Several typhoons in the Western Pacific could lead to several troughs into the eastern U-S as we enter August.  

 

Here is the video update!

 

Earliest Alert Wednesday Edition

DISCUSSION:

Plan is to break this down in time periods...

Rest of today:
Downpours aiming between Evansville and Louisville.  Most will miss out. Highs will still climb over 90 degrees.

Thursday:
High pressure takes over.  Lots of sunshine. Hot.  Likely the hottest day of the year.  Until the next day.

Friday:
Hot.  Stormy setup juuuuust our northeast closer to Cincinnati.  Highs in the mid 90s. Heat index over 103 possible.

Saturday:
Hot.  Stormy setup to our north.  Highs in the mid 90s. Heat index again over 103 at times.

Sunday:
T-storm potential starts to rise. North to south.  Still another hot day in the lower 90s.  Heat index still over 100 at times.

NEXT WEEK:
Periods of thunderstorms until mid week then a break should develop.  80s will rule over the 90s this time around.

 

Here is the video update!

 

 

Earliest Alert Tuesday Edition

DISCUSSION:
The video will have to cover most of the discussion today due to limited time.

Overall, a few t-storms to track today and tomorrow.
The heat will rule the headlines the rest of the week/end.

The setup next week is still evolving, but does have a stormy look to it.

Here ya go!

 

 

StormTALK! Friday Edition

DISCUSSION:
So far the thunderstorm "show" with this front has been less than impressive. But that is what you get when you don't have decent wind aloft.

Having said that, we still have another good 12 hours to go with the high moisture content in our air, so even just a few clusters of thunderstorms can take advantage of that and produce very heavy rain/lightning and a burst of 50 mph winds.  It is the coverage of such that will not be impressive. Just keep the WAVE 3 Weather App handy today if you plan to be outside.

WEEKEND:
Saturday--still enough lingering moisture south of the Parkways that may spark an afternoon shower.  90% of WAVE Country will be just fine with lower humidity and some blue skies to enjoy.

Sunday-- The daylight hours look fine with some increasing high level clouds in the afternoon.  The problem here will be another front dropping in later that day/night. There is still a small window for a brief t-storm during the overnight hours into early Monday.  We will fine-tune that as we get closer.

That front will keep highs in the upper 80s on Monday, but then after that...the heat is on.

NEXT WEEK:
If the ground continues to dry out, expect a potent period of heat next week with highs potentially exceeding the 94 degree mark (our highest point so far this year).  The core hot days look to be Tue-Friday.

After that...there remains signs the heat will try to get beat down to the south/west a bit and thunderstorm coverage will increase.  But that idea is not locked in just yet.  If this breakdown fails to push into our area--we may be in for a fairly lengthy period of 90 degree heat.  Stay tuned.

Here is the video breakdown!

StormTALK! Thursday Edition

DISCUSSION:
Severe threat is not high...by definition, but some of the impacts will need to be watched.
Rest of today/tonight:
Main focus for t-storms will be north of I-64.  The mean flow aloft is still west to east.  With the cold front making little movement south during this period, the only way to get thunderstorms to build into the I-64 area will be outflow/cold pooling of the thunderstorm clusters.  And that is possible and the models don't always pick up on those small features.  So just be alert of that potential. There could be another area of strong t-storms that may blossom over central KY that we are monitoring. Otherwise, if you live in southern IN and up I-71 in KY, you will be mainly the storm zone today with just isolated pop-ups elsewhere.  The heat will be the bigger story for many as we COULD push above our highest point of the summer.  That stands at 94°.  The cloud cover will determine if we reach/exceed that point.  Either way, the increase moisture in the air will easily allow for the heat index to reach/exceed 100 degrees for a few hours this afternoon.  Be careful.

Friday:
This is trending more active over the past 12 hours.  With the slower movement of the cold front, we could end up with decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms.  The good news here is that the main wind energy aloft will be to our east tomorrow.  So the only severe threat will be pulse-like t-storms with the instability in place.  Which can still cause problems.

The plan is to have this front out of the region before the sun comes up Saturday.  Expect lower moisture values in the air for the weekend, but it will remain very warm/hot either way.  

We will repeat things for next week.  I go into more detail on that with the video.

Here is the video update!