DISCUSSION:
Switching the banner back to stormtalk to account for the severe potential the next couple of days.
So let's dive in.
TODAY:
Other than spotty downpour, the heat is the big story today. Highs 90-93. The heat index could range from 95 to 98 degrees at times.
THURSDAY:
Hazy/humid start to the day. Spotty t-storms will be possible later morning/midday, but the main show will hold off until later in the day.
This means a decent amount of heating. In fact, the potential is there for a hotter day tomorrow than today (by a degree or two). The heat index will also be higher with the moisture pooling up ahead of the approaching cold front. Keep this in mind if you plan to be outside through say 3 or 4pm.
Once we reach mid-afternoon, thunderstorms should pop across IL/IN and form several clusters/bands. Most of these t-storms will track E/SE. We will need to watch for some of them to produce outflow boundaries that could lead to new development closer to the Ohio River by the PM rush. Also, more t-storms are expected to develop over IL late in the day and also track E/SE. These should feed more into central KY during the evening as they fade out due to the loss of daytime heating. We will monitoring the threats as we get closer, but flash flooding and very intense lightning will be some of the more widespread impacts.
FRIDAY:
The cold front should be very close to I-64 by sunrise. It will remain quite humid so it will not take much to get showers/thunderstorms to develop. The concentration of thunderstorms/heavy rain will shift south into southern Kentucky by the afternoon hours. The more north you are, the better the day will turn out for you. Severe there is there, but mainly pulse-type thunderstorms with brief damaging winds. The intense lightning/flash flooding threats will remain.
WEEKEND:
Looks good.
SUNDAY PM/TUESDAY:
Watching for a closed low to drop in from the eastern Great Lakes. That should our next heat wave at bay for a couple of days. Any rain chance looks to be more toward Ohio at this time. We'll watch that.
NEXT WEEK:
Heat builds in with at least 3 to 4 days in the 90s. The question will be whether a backdoor front/eastern trough will return by the 22nd and push the heat back west to allow for a cooldown locally. It would also mean a stormier pattern for us.
We'll see.
Here is the video update!
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