SnowBOARD
Still working on the video part. I appreciate your patience :)
We have roughly 3 snow chances within the 7 day. And likely more will get added as we move more into February until Arctic air tries to rule the pattern for a bit.
Let's break them down...
1st- Next 12 hours
Rain/snow mix will go to light snow showers toward the late afternoon/early evening. Any impacts will be based on how quickly temperatures drop as the snow showers linger. Best chance at a light coating/slick spots will be mainly east of I-65. There will be a decent amount of wind so that will help dry up some of the roads as well. Minor issue that can become a headache if the timing is just right for travel at anyone location in WAVE Country. So be sure to check the latest radar trends/road conditions before you leave work later today.
2nd---Thursday/Friday
This one keeps varying with the strength of the wave along the front. Trend goes weaker/more progressive, then some runs slow it down/stronger. The varying outcomes will continue until we get a better handle on the energy that will lead to this wave to begin with. Timing is important for it as well to line up with the front. We should have some decent data Tuesday to narrow down timeframes/types and impacts. It may even be possible to give amounts. But as of now, the trend is more of an advisory event if anything. So no need to get too upset/excited yet.
No maps today on that. I will tomorrow.
3rd---SuperBowl Sunday
This one may actually end up a bit more exciting than #2. Likely another rain to snow setup. We'll have to watch that one for Monday AM's commute.
And that really is the theme of all 3, travel impacts if they arrive at the wrong time. So we still need to watch them closely as even 1" of snow can give us trouble.
For you BOTS's fans, the pattern looks too progressive to me to see anything 'big" show up. We need things to slow down a bit. As we get more into February, the pattern is more favorable for that. Until then, I would expect just some quick-hitters.
Speaking of looking ahead, Bering Sea Rule shows the Polar Vortex right over the Great Lakes for Mid/Late February. COLD!
And looking at the Rossby Wave Train (constantchaos.com), you can see the drop still mainly coming for mid/late February.
Several waves that could produce snow.
EURO PNA signal is going POSITIVE...good sign for colder east coast, warmer west.
Even the GFS is on board with that them. Again, mid/late month. I still like Valentine's Day as a good flipping point.
Let's just hope we don't see a January repeat of the cold dominating our weather pattern and suppressing the storm track south. That is always a risk, but I will say that is harder to do in February compared to early January. So this could make for an interesting setup in the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.
Oh, and just for fun. I did look at the wave train for precip chances in March/April....and saw the snow chance in early April. Even by that point I would be over seeing that. :)
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