Before I glance in the lovely crystal ball---I wanted to look back at the storms from Monday.
Here is a look at the warnings that were issued Monday/Monday night.
You can see how close we came to tornado warnings in our area. It was an interesting setup of a stalling low pressure/front that really played havoc with timing and overall evolution of the squall line. Several supercells did develop in advance of the main line---including the one near Nashville that prompted the tornado warnings into southern KY. That supercell likely helped to disrupt the squall-lines ability to produce more severe weather by "shaking up" the wind fields. We noticed a similar case of such in middle TN. Details like that---the models just cannot see well. We have to nowcast those events as they happen. Overall---the bigger picture played out well. We knew the front would stall---but just didn't know how far east the line would make it in 'severe mode'. Turns out---it ended right on our doorstep. I am perfectly fine with that!!!
Another interesting note--- looking at the analogs in which we look at previous years in which similar setups took place---and mapped what happened then. This was the historical average of severe weather with a setup like Monday's:
And here was the actual result:
Not bad....not bad.
Now that we are added more and more years/data into analogs...they are becoming better tools than in the past. And will only get better. Expect to see more of these maps this winter to help us fine-tune winter storm events.
We are still dealing with the low pressure of Monday's front in our area. Notice the pinwheel effect of showers wrapping around the low.
Also notice some of the sun breaks on the east/southeast side (more unstable side) of the low while it is solid clouds on the NW side (colder side).
We will remain generally on the southern side of this low as it drifts eastward. This means we have an imbalance of our atmosphere. Sun heating the ground in spots---and quite cold above us. That is how you get instability. And the models do show some low CAPES for Wed and a bit more to the east on Thursday as the low moves east.
This means that a few lightning strikes are possible with the spotty showers and perhaps even small hail. But overall---just showers will be the dominant issue.
The low will help drive a dry cold front through the area Saturday...which will step our temps downward for the weekend. Some 30s possible early Sunday. But at least it will be a SUNNY weekend!!
We then look at an interesting setup for next Tuesday/Wednesday.
I hinted at this on the blog several days back---and the feature is still there.
Energy will dive down out of Canada during this time. The debate with the models is how much of a "dig" will this shortwave take as it moves into the Ohio Valley?
CANADIAN has quite the digging factor of this low, but can only see the first stage of it so far.
EURO can see the entire event---and shows the low really digging along with some cold air. Taken verbatim would mean snowflakes mixing in across OH/WV. I am not ready to say parts of KY just yet :)
GFS says no way. Weaker wave....therefore it does not pull down much cold air. Just showers.
The NAO is negative next week..so it does support some blocking to take place to allow for digging. But since it is trending toward neutral---that does raise questions on the effects of this.
It is also worth noting that this is a dipping effect from the re-curving typhoon theory. So it would support a trough/digging pattern for the east. Let's give it a few more days.
The EURO does good at sniffing these events out, but GFS has done well lately. The EURO idea does pose a good chance to give us highs in the 50s with a killing frost in the low 30s next week. Not to mention perhaps snowflakes not too far away from us :) I know I know, just one model saying that now...but as a BOTS lover...you always have to hope. ;)
I do see signs of it warming up after this feature.
In the past, October was usually our "quiet" month. Oh well.