Here is the latest monitoring board...
11/21 Confidence Meter 3 out of 10
11/27-30 Confidence Meter 3 out of 10
I will get into the above in a moment.
Most of the light showers will fade by late evening/overnight. Temps should cool back a few degrees later this afternoon, but may actually rise a bit toward morning in response to the warm front getting closer to us.
The warm front should pass through in the morning with the main rain risk northwest of the BG/WK Parkways (Basically Grayson Co KY through Lexington KY). And even that far southeast may be generous.
Once the front passes, expect the winds to kick in from the south and get gusty at times. Any breaks in the cloud cover could send Louisville into the 75 degree range. 84° is the record high...that will stay safe :) But the point is, Tuesday afternoon looks really nice with the warm temps and even some sunshine. The only downer would be the gusty winds.
The plan is to keep this period dry as well. Remember, this band of rain we have been talking about for a week now is a slow mover. But it will start to "gain speed" on Wednesday. For us, that is good news as we will get to benefit from the warm/dry period a bit longer than those to our west. So expect temps in the 60s all night long.
This is when our luck runs out. The rain band will work its way in from the west as the day wears on. How quickly it does so will determine out high temp for that day. We may squeeze out some morning 70s based on current forecast speeds. Once it arrives, expect a steady rainfall with gusty winds remaining. Severe risk remains low with the main concern being any ability for the band of rain to tap into the strong winds aloft. The thing is, the strongest winds look displaced from when we gain the most instability. The strongest winds look early in the day and then ease when the rain band pushes in. So that is why we are not worried about widespread severe weather with this setup right now ...even though it is coming in during the daytime. Having said that, there still could be pockets of higher winds that lag aloft that we will need to monitor. Just can't say for sure this early on that one.
It appears widespread strong/severe/heavy thunderstorms will hug the I-20/I-10 region of the Gulf Coast during this period. This will "steal" much of the deep moisture out of this rain band...so rain totals locally look to average close to 1-2" rather than 2-4" as it looked last week. So no flooding issues expected with that setup.
We'll see how all of this data looks tomorrow as occluded low pressures can through models for a loop. Need more realtime data to look at rather than "models".
These two days look quiet and seasonable. Temps near 60 both days and dry.
This is the first ITEM OF INTEREST on the list. Decent support today (that the models have hinted at for a week now) for a cold front to slide in Saturday morning. It will have limited moisture to work with as it never gains a full south flow into it. At the same time, that is good news for those that like snowflakes. The lack of a strong slow flow means the cold air will be more dominate with this front. The downside, again, is a lack of moisture. So this is not a big precip chance, but if the timing holds of near sunrise Saturday---we should see a band of light rain/snow or even some sleet mixed in. No accumulation issues! The more north you are, the deeper the cold air is aloft and better moisture as well. The more south you are...you may not see a thing. Timing is everything too...if it arrives after the sun rises---I would bet more on raindrops than snowflakes. So confidence meter will remain low on this as it is several days away.
I should note, after the morning clouds/mixed precip chance----the sun should come back out. But it will be a chilly with with lows in the 20s likely Saturday night.
Looks sunny, but chilly.
Remember how I said spacing in between system is key? It appears we will see a few days gap this week in systems. This would increase the risk for warmer air toward Thanksgiving. I do see signs of another strong low pressure forming in the Plains during this period.
The question (and second ITEM OF INTEREST on the board) is what happens after that system?
The latest CFS submonthly says it is worth watching showing a cold shot (from WeatherBell).
Hmm. Stay tuned! BOTS!