Heavy downpours will remain a threat until we change up our flow.
And that isn't going to happen rapidly.
Main flow of steady rain tracks north through Missouri...then bends east/northeast through central/south central IN into Ohio. Basically arcs around most of us in WAVE Country.
The flood alerts along that path. It doesn't mean that we can't get heavy downpours on the southern edge of that...including Louisville. Since we have been more out of the main rain zone than in....we can handle 1-2" of rain at a given time without major flooding issues. Hence no watch farther south. Many spots will remain void of rainfall today.
The "rain zone" I outlined above is forecast to drift more south/east by Tuesday afternoon. This will provide for greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms. We will monitor those for any pockets that could push flash flooding potential. That concern looks more limited to those along/north of the Ohio River.
The front that has been responsible for this "rain zone" will start to fade off the map as we approach Thursday. This means any rain chance will be limited to your typical heat-of-the-day t-storms.
EARLIEST ALERT UPDATE:
A fairly decent front approaches during this period. This looks to heat us up well into the 80s to near 90 during the day Saturday, but then leads to thunderstorms by the late afternoon/night. Granted, it is only Monday---so timing of this could (and likely will) change.
The potential is there for a strong wind gusts with the t-storms....timing will ultimately determine how that turns out.
The good news is the front will allow for a good drop in dewpoints on Sunday and next Monday. It may be more of a setup of gradual improvement Sunday with the true "feel" of relief on Monday.
At least something to track and look forward to :)
Enjoy the day!