Main focus remains on next week.
Here is the breakdown:
Warm front surges in. Windy with temps likely in the 60s. Scattered areas of drizzle showers expected. Exact coverage is a bit unclear at this early stage.
Active day. Strong wind shear looks to be in place. Moisture will likely surge into the area with dewpoints in the upper 50s at least. The question will then become instability. How "rainy" will be it in the morning/midday period? No one knows yet. But the dynamics alone certainly are enough to mention the potential for strong t-storms. We will wait a bit longer before discussing "severe" potential.
It is interesting to see the analogs (using past weather events to compare what has happened before in similar setups) indicate an elevated severe risk in our area.
Highs will have no problem getting into the 60s. The questions is could we overachieve and reach the 70s? Record high is 69 for Louisville. We shall see.
Tuesday night/Wednesday AM...
Cold front slams into the area. Temps will crash but likely not to the freezing mark. Cold enough, however, that the rain in the area could briefly change to snow. But little if any grassy accumulation would take place. Normally dry air really wins out in these setups. And this one looks like a classic case of that. So don't get too excited on the snow potential with the main low/front.
Well... (John Gordon will get why I started the sentence that way) we will either end up partly sunny and cold. Or some light snow over Kentucky.
There is a second low that is trying its best to stay in the game an slide into the deep south. That will be a challenge which such a strong high pressure and highly amplified jet stream. EURO seems done with it. GFS isn't quite yet. We'll see.
I do see a surge of warmth really kicking in mid month. 60s/70s in fact.
But....signal analysis does show a flip back to cold toward the end of the month? It has been pretty good so far this season on its outlooks.
Enjoy the video!!