Most of the questions I am getting lately are about the weekend, so I will update the latest on that. I will also touch base more on the longer term on the video including some eye candy that some of you BOTS fans have been asking me about.
Here we go...
The short-range models are doing a poor job with the impulse tracking into western KY along our old front that came through yesterday. Decent lift along the front in its path is leading to scattered downpours and even t-storms. We have a small rain chance in now for western sections of WAVE Country, but Christie and I are discussing raising that up a bit and adding thunder to the outlook today. The air is drier once you approach I-65 so there will be a limit on the eastern extent of this rain chance today. So stay close for forecast adjustments.
South winds return. That combined with some sunshine is setting the stage for a hot day. Highs in the lower 90s certainly look reachable with the current data trends. T-storm action during the day looks isolated.
Our first surge of rainfall develops to our west as t-storms blossom. We will see that surge of rainfall overnight toward sunrise Saturday. There are signs of another surge moving in from the SW at that time that would push close to Louisville in the morning hours as well.
Morning: Heavy rain/thunderstorms in the area. Timing of this surge of rainfall is in question, but look to be most impacting around sunrise and shifting more east by late morning/midday.
Afternoon: Going to relax the coverage of rainfall early in the afternoon, but increase it again in the afternoon in a very scattered fashion.
Night: Another surge of heavy rainfall possible. Especially along/east of I-65.
Main rain chance along/east of 65 and shifting more and more east as the day wears on. Clouds may hold tough for awhile.
This looks to be a setup of waves of rainfall that could be locally heavy at times. Amounts of 1-2" possible. It does appear that the daylight hours of Saturday would feature a more scattered fashion to the radar than during the nighttime periods this weekend. That is why we are not going with 100% rain chances and/or using the term "washout". Having said that, when it does rain...it could rain very hard. So plan for that setup. Not the best of weather pattern for the weekend, but it is workable as long as you have a plan and are prepared for the "worst" setup in your area just in case. We hope to get even more specific on this by tomorrow.
**** Earliest Alert Outlook **
The heat looks to build back in next week. Just how much into this hot ridge of high pressure we get into remains questionable. There looks to be a weak front on Tuesday with a small rain chance. Otherwise, the heat will take over for the 2nd half of next week with 90 degrees reachable.
The video looks at the pattern through October.