How do we pay for a nice Thunder Over Louisville forecast? With real thunder this afternoon! Scattered showers and thunderstorms are already beginning to "pop" on radar and they'll be with us through the afternoon, hit or miss. By this evening they fade away as we lose heating from the sun.
There's a Marginal Risk of severe weather today but anything more than small hail, some gusty winds, and heavy rain doesn't appear likely. There's just no real wind energy aloft today, so anything strong would be driven by instability due to the cold air aloft with the low pressure moving through.
Thunder itself and the rest of the weekend is looking great! Sunshine and 76° on Saturday will be perfect. We'll be in the 60s by fireworks time and a northeasterly breeze looks to blow the fireworks smoke toward the southwest. Western areas of Downtown Louisville and some parts of West Louisville would see some of this.
The pattern looks more active as we head through next week and beyond. Multiple longwave disturbances (see GFS model to the right) will produce multi-day severe weather episodes in the Plains. We'll be on the eastern edge of that, so while thunderstorms are likely at times over the next week or two, severe weather chances will be more limited than those to our west. A full discussion is in the video below!