Situation remains the same. Potential for a bit of wintry weather as "changeover" events after larger rain systems pass through our area.
DISCUSSION: Very odd pattern across the northern hemisphere. The core of the cold is over Eurasia. We are dealing with 2 branches of the jet stream that will soon contain more moisture, but only "stale" cold. The first significant system still involves 2 pieces. The first will drop in from the northern branch Monday. Some rain showers possible with that. The southern branch feature is more more potent. It will then track into the OH/TN Valleys next Tuesday and exit east by Wednesday. There are still some track/speed/pressure differences with the models on how this second piece evolves. Having said that, the overall theme is to slow it down...warm the temperatures in advance of it...and monitor the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms. That part all of the models agree with in a general sense. The colder air behind it and moisture is where they diverge again. The potential is there for another vort max (piece of energy) to rotate in behind this front and help enhance the risk for some light rain/sleet/snow showers. I don't see anything significant with that for now. Still early of course. The next significant impacting system will move in about a week later. The track looks nearly identical with rain/thunder than perhaps a bit of wintry weather. The video below explains all of this and I will also try to provide more details as to the overall global setup that is taking shape as we look farther into December.
Have a great Thanksgiving!!