Lots to track over the next 7-14 days with many outdoor events at risk.
Let's focus on what is on the table from now until the weekend.
That will involved a cold front Thursday, warm front Friday night/Saturday and a cold front Sunday night or next Monday.
We'll have to monitor the speed of this. Current thinking would allow for passage late morning/early afternoon. That would limit the heating/instability and keep the severe risk marginal. However, if the front is slower...there would be more fuel to work with and may get into a brief severe weather event.
Friday Night/Saturday Warm Front:
This one is going to change as we get closer in time. Very moisture rich boundary will be moving our way. On paper, the warm front would pass through near sunrise Saturday and then lift into Indiana by the afternoon. However, it is expected to be quite active the night before to our west. This will likely impact the front and radar trends. So bear with us on this one. I know we have many races that morning so nailing this down is key. Once it passes north, it will turn quite humid and warm. The potential is there for a 90 degree temp either Saturday afternoon or Sunday. It will just depend on how humid we become as that would keep the air temp down a tad but increase the heat index. In addition, isolated t-storms would be possible Saturday PM into Sunday.
Sunday/Next Monday Cold Front:
Timing on this is unclear. The low occludes to our west. This will likely slow the cold front down quite a bit. So the exact passage time is unclear. There could be severe risk with this one if we face a daytime passage on say Monday. But the main dynamics will go with the low into the Great Lakes.
Looking ahead to Derby Week:
Signs of a warm front Wednesday with a few t-storms. Rain threat is there for the parade. That system may then drag cooler air in for Oaks and perhaps Derby, but with dry weather.
I am sure all of that will adjust as we get closer :)
Here is the video update!