Finally!! Blog is back up!
Sorry again about the technical issues. Hopefully the host site is stable now.
Now---to the weather.
THURSDAY'S STORM CHANCE
Most of the day look dry and quite warm. Highs near 80 possible.
The storm threat comes into play late that night as a cold front (weakening) moves in. As mentioned before, the parent low attached to this front is way north into Canada. That weakens the amount of force this front has to push the wind upward to severe limits.
What can help enhance that a bit would be instability.
So we will start there.
NAM is more aggressive with values...GFS much lower. And honestly, if these values were in the winter, they would raise eyebrows. But given this is now late April...they are considered low.
Dewpoints with both models forecast to range mainly in the 50s. 60 degree dewpoints to the south. You can get severe with 50s, but it is much more likely at 60° or higher in the dewpoint category.
Both similar with a band of wind as the front pushes in. But winds aloft in the 30kt range isn't off the charts.
This looks to be a classic weakening squall-line that will move in after 11p tomorrow night. It may become broken in nature as it passes through and becomes very tilted in a SW to NE fashion. So that may "linger" the showers/storms through the morning rush. They could be severe initially across S IL far W KY tomorrow afternoon. So we will have to watch Dubois County IN southward for a risk that they may see some of that stronger activity before they weaken. Otherwise, I think "strong storms" best describes this event. Winds gusting 40-45mph certainly possible in the strongest cells. Once you go east of I 65...the threat for stronger winds will begin to cease. So not a major event at all---but it may kick up the winds and the lightning may get your attention---so we at least wanted to address the risks with this frontal passage.
Don't expect chilly weather after this front as the wind direction will remain southwesterly. So highs around 80 or even higher expected Fri-Sun. This weekend has the potential to be yet another warm/sunny weekend for many. (we are getting lucky lately).
This is where the headaches remain.
There looks to be a decent low moving into the Plains states Sun/Mon. This looks to be a very slow moving low pressure. Anywhere to the south/east of this low...it looks warm/stormy.
The models are agreeing a bit more today that this low should be to our WEST Sun-Tue. So this means warm/stormy weather on tap.
GFS has the low west.
EURO does as well.
Given that position, there will be a risk for strong storms. SPC is already outlooking the risk for severe for the quadrants on the SE side of this as it crawls east through Tuesday. Something worth monitoring
It is after Tuesday that the differences really show up.
GFS pushes the upper low pretty quick by Friday (OAKS DAY) into the NE USA. This would mean a quick drying/warming pattern for Oaks and Derby with highs in the 70s.
EURO, however, is SLOW with this bad boy. Drifts it slowly east..and even deepens it through Friday (OAKS DAY). This would mean cloudy/cool (highs in 40s/50s) with even spotty rain showers.
This is a blocking pattern we are heading into so that complicates how the models handle energy like this that gets cutoff from the flow. I have seen changes in the details every model run---so I would not adjust plans for next week at all. The new EURO comes in shortly---I will be curious to see if it shows a more GFS look or if it plans to hold its ground. We will let you know our latest thoughts on the news this evening once all the data has rolled in. But this at least gives you an idea of what the challenges are we are investigating.