Weather Blog

"I get knocked down, but I get up again"

The weather pattern reminds me of Chumbawamba from the 90s :)  We do keep getting knocked down with front...but summer will keep trying to "get up again".

We certainly felt the last front...highs Friday in the 50s/60s with lows this morning...in the 40s in many spots!  (normal is low 60s)

We will see a decent amount of sun today, but that will only help fuel the chance for thunderstorms this afternoon.  Very "speckled" looking storms on the radar later.  Not everyone will see them---but if you do--you may see a burst of rain/lightning and small hail.  They will start to fade to more of a showery form and less thunderstorm(y) after sunset.

Latest RUC shows a few popping as early as 2pm:

Still very scattered at 5pm:

SPC does have a 5% hail risk out ...but as of this blog post--it was west of us. I would not be surprised to see that a bit more east.

Either way, more of a nuisance than anything this afternoon/tonight. 

This feature swinging through today will move into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday.  Nothing to the west coming our way---so that means sunshine with high getting closer to normal (which is 81 degrees).

Monday/Tuesday will feature a low that will pass very close to us.  A few days ago, it looked like it may hit us directly with a high wind threat.

However, latest trends on EURO/GFS keep is just barely to our south/west Monday/Monday night.  That looks to be the way to go with this one.

GFS: shows the low skipping across TN.  Could be some decent rains and storms with that. We'll watch it for our southern counties especially.  It looks to be too close to Louisville to go dry---so rain chances remain.

SPC does show a (below slight risk) chance for stronger storms Monday.

Since the low is tracking more south than north...it will likely develop once it reaches the Carolinas.  That will likely drop our highs down into the upper 60s and low 70s Tue/Wed.  It will also lead to a boundary over the area so showers/storms may be possible.

TUES                                                     WED
                      

    

Right now, I stopped rain chances at Tuesday.  But we may have to extend them into Wednesday. Highs may have to be lowered on our 7 day too.  Again---all depends on that low and how much it develops to our southeast. Just too early yet.

Either way, we do warm up quite a bit toward the weekend.  Highs well into the 80s.  Close to 90 in spots.

However, yet ANOTHER front moves in by the 11th.  That will bring a storm chance and drop us back down temperature wise.

We may not see a prolonged bout of heat (upper 80s/90s) until about mid or late June the way the pattern is shaping up.  June very well could become a below average temperature month for the area.

 

record warmth, record chill in the same post

Here was an interesting nugget from the NWS Louisville home page talking about the warmest spring (March-May) we have ever seen in Kentucky...

Warmest Spring on Record

A historically warm March across central Kentucky was followed by well-above-normal temperatures in May. Throw in temperatures that ran just slightly above average in April, and that's enough for the warmest spring on record. All four long-term climate sites in central Kentucky broke records, with Louisville and Bowling Green surpassing the old marks by 3 degrees! It's also worth noting that 3 of the last 6 springs rank among the warmest 10 springs. 

 

Average Temperatures (March through May)...

 

	Spring 2012	Old record (Year)
Louisville	63.9	61.0 (1977)
Lexington	60.3	60.0 (1977)
Frankfort	60.2	60.1 (1921)
Bowling Green	65.1	61.6 (1929)

Then its worth noting that today may end up as one of the coolest June 1st's ever. The coolest high ever recorded was 62 degrees. As of 3 PM we have only reached 61 since sunrise. However we were at 66 at midnight so it won't go into the books as the coolest ever.

 

Temps drop it like it's NOT hot

A cold front is moving through WAVE Country this morning.  This is the same storm system that sparked all the storms yesterday.  As the cold front clears our area, it will start drying out, the temperatures will feel cooler, and the humidity will drop.

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Notice the temperatures are cooler in the western half of the state.  This is where the cold front has already passed through... dropping temperatures.

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The air moving in from the west behind the cold front is also less humid.  These dewpoints show the drop in humidity.

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The storms from last night helped to clear out some of the pollen.  Check out today's pollen count!

6:30 PM Storm Update

Here's a look at radar as pf 6:25 PM...

 

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for all of the WAVE 3 viewing area until 10PM. We are tracking a fast moving cold front that has already produced several severe thunderstorm warnings to our West. This line will continue to track Eastward and will invade the metro and surrounding counties in the next 30 minutes to an hour. The severe line of storms will arrive in the metro area by 7PM. Lingering storms will continue on the backside of the initial line. Directly ahead of this line of storms is where you'll find the most intense winds. 60 to 70 mile per hour winds are possible as this line "bows" out. Large hail is also possible with these embedded storms. We've had reports of half dollar and golf ball size hail with the storms heading in our direction.

 

TORNADO THREAT

While low for widespread tornadoes, the threat of isolated tornadoes is still possible. As the main area of low pressure moves closer to enough there's enough spin in the atmosphere a tornado warning or two can't be ruled out but on a widespread scale the main threats will be limited to damaging winds and large hail. Should any tornado form we expect them to be brief. Keep it to WAVE 3 news for the latest on these severe storms.

Storm Threat UPDATE

Most of this entry will focus on the setup this afternoon/evening.  Then I will touch base on the pattern ahead.  Very "early spring" pattern for us.  It seems like we can't keep it in one season at a time anymore.

Anyway...here is the setup right now.

Few cirrus clouds over us now. They will push east and we will break back out in blue skies for a bit.  The warm front is to the south of us.  The low in MO track into IL/IN and drag that warm front right across us.  Until that happens, nothing is going to happen.  So now it is a waiting game.

One thing is for sure, we need the moisture to move in. 

Current dewpoints in the 60s (in the green) are along and south of the warm front.

The SPC meso page can forecast those dewpoints out 6 hours.  And here is where it as them by rush hour:

Helecity values help us in determine any "spin" the storms may develop.  Right now, the highest values again are south of the low ...and along the warm front.  But even then, only around 100.  During tornado outbreak threats---we see those numbers of 300-600.  So you can see how this isn't  a huge tornado threat.

SPC page once again forecasts out 6 hours..and brings those 100 values right into southern IN and KY.  If we get tornado warnings today--it would be at that point.

This is only a narrow window of a severe threat that will be maximized when the low is at its closet point tracking across IL/IN.  After it passes---the threat ends pretty fast.  

Timing:

Now-4pm  30% (west/south)

4pm-8pm  90% (moving in from the west to east)

8pm-10pm- 40% (moving into eastern areas)

10pm+- 30% (showers)

SPC OUTLOOK:
Slight Risk

Tornado Risk (right where the 100 values were on helecity) 

Hail Risk

Damaging Wind Risk

THOUGHTS OVERALL:
There will be a couple waves of storms.  Some could be severe..some will be just typical storms.  We will watch the 4-8pm time carefully to see if the rotation does develop as forecast by some of the models.  Once that threat has passed---we can relax.  This is not an outbreak---but only takes one storm to cause harm---so that is why we are mentioning the threat often.

We will watch the radar carefully this afternoon for timing adjustments and warnings/watches that may come out.  So stay close.  Don't forget to download our weather app "WAVE RADAR" for your cell if away.

SO WHAT IS NEXT?

The low move into the Great Lakes...and we get a backlash flow.  So this will be a BACKLASH WEEKEND as I call it.  What does that mean?  Well the air above us Fri-Sun will be pretty cold for this time of the year on the backside of this low pressure.  Any sunshine will allow cumulus clouds to reach up and tap into that cold air.  Hail then becomes a threat.  Not necessarily large hail...but enough that a few warnings are certainly possible.  Again, highly dependent on any sunshine we can pick up. If we stay cloudy, the cumulus clouds won't be able to climb very high.

Having said that...here is how it looks.

Friday backlash:  not a high threat.  Small instability showing up.  Mostly a cloudy day so that should keep it limited to just showers/drizzle.

Saturday backlash:  better chance for some sun.  So afternoon pop-up storms with a hail threat possible.  Perhaps even some funnel clouds in a few cases--touchdowns not likely. (usually coined the term "cold air funnels")

Sunday backlash: storm threat shifts more east as the low and cold pool above us moves east as well.

There is another cold front moving down in the NW flow (thanks to this current low) that will drop down Monday/Tuesday.  That will have to be watch for a severe threat (high winds) that may develop.

Once that passes---we cool down to near or slightly below normal for the 2nd half of next week.

Then AFTER THAT---we heat up.  90s likely try to make a comeback and tropics head up in the Gulf of Mexico.

But now I am getting ahead of myself :)

 

Timing of Today's Storms

A strong storm system will barrel  through WAVE Country later today sparking storms that could become severe.  We are under a slight risk of severe storms today for the potential for wind damage, large hail, and a small possibility of an isolated tornado.

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Here are your chances of storms through today and tomorrow:

TODAY

Now-1pm: Dry

1pm-4pm:  30% chance

4pm-6pm:  60% chance (severe risk)

6pm-10pm:  80% chance (severe risk)

10pm-12am:  70% chance (severe risk)

TOMORROW

12am-4am:  60% chance

4am-8am:  50% chance

8am-10am:  30% chance

10am-12pm:  20% chance

12pm-rest of day:  Dry

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Surface CAPE values still show moderate instability for late this afternoon.

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One good thing that the storms later today will bring... lower pollen counts!  Here are the numbers for today:

STORM THREAT INCREASES

Happy Wednesday, friends.

Clouds continue to put their stamp on Kentuckiana this afternoon. A few showers developed earlier and held together just enough to sprinkle the lawns in Southwestern Indiana and a few areas along the river. Over the next few hours a sprinkle or two can't be ruled out but more noticeable will be the cloud cover. Partly to at times mostly cloudy skies will continue until sunset then we'll turn partly cloudy overnight. The cluster of rain we saw earlier was in advance of a bigger rain maker that will arrive tomorrow and Friday. Storm chances increase greatly in the next 24-48 hours in addition to the threat of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has included parts of Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas in a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather today. The bullseye location this afternoon and evening will be Central Oklahoma…this does include Oklahoma City. The culprit of this severe weather outbreak is a tightening area of low pressure. As this low tracks Eastward a developing warm and cold front will tag along. We'll be watching this set up carefully tomorrow and Friday.

MODERATE RISK ISSUED FOR TODAY

                   WINDS THREAT TODAY                                        TORNADO THREAT TODAY

             

At this time the SPC has us placed in a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather tomorrow. Should we see any sunshine I'd lean towards more of a moderate risk set up...either way, a small chance or increased risk of severe weather we'll be watching it closely. I do think we'll have two "rounds" of storms.

SLIGHT RISK TOMORROW

ROUND 1 - ROUND 2

A warm front will ignite pop up showers and storms late tomorrow morning and into tomorrow afternoon. Some of these storms could become strong or severe. New data suggests the potential for supercells to develop ahead of this area of low pressure which would have the ability to spin. So we'll watch a small tornado threat. Should these storms remain more elevated hail would be the main threat. If we hold onto a more elevated storm set up I believe the cold fronts arrival and passage will be more intense.

 

TIMING

Anytime after 10am tomorrow I think storms will start to develop in our Southwestern viewing area. These will push Northeast along the river and become more numberous with the afternoon heating. Effects of the cold front will be felt more so tomorrow evening/overnight and into early Friday. While they may initially start as supercells or scattered storms I expect the storms to form into more of a line as they push East by Friday morning. Any supercells that develop could spin but as storms form into more of a line straight line winds become more of the concern. Thankfully, these storms haven't even developed yet so we're basing this information on forecasted model data...best advice is to check back with us. At least it appears as if this system will loose a bit of it's punch as it tracks Eastward. We'll watch it closely.

 

 

Pool Today... Video Games Tomorrow

Today is the last day for JCPS, and many of the surrounding schools are already out for the summer. 

Today is going to be the perfect day to hit the pool (don't forget the sunscreen!), and the kids will be stuck inside playing video games tomorrow with storms in the forecast. 

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Although yesterday's storms brought flooding to some areas, allergy sufferers will reap some of the benefits from that rain taking the pollen count down a knotch.

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A strong storm system moves through tomorrow bringing thunderstorms to WAVE Country.  Here's the timing of tomorrow's storms:

THURSDAY

5am-10am:  20% chance

10am-2pm:  40% chance

2pm-7pm:  50% chance

7pm-12am:  90% chance 

 

FRIDAY

12am-7am:  90% chance

7am-2pm:  50% chance

2pm- rest of day:  DRY

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We are under a slight risk of severe storms tomorrow.  Main threats are damaging winds and large hail.  An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially since the center of the low pressure system is moving right through our area.  However, the chance of a tornado is low.

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Tomorrow afternoon's CAPE shows moderate instability around 1500... maybe a bit higher.

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Tomorrow's storms will bring some heavy downpours at times... not that we really need more rain after yesterday's 3.17".  Most areas tomorrow and Friday will receive 0.50"-0.75" total.

 

 

 

FLOODING UPDATE AS OF 1PM

Scattered storms continue across much of Kentuckiana as of 1:00 PM. The most widespread storms are along, South and East of the river. This is all apart of a cold front that continues to march through the region. Once the front clears nicer weather is in store.

WHY THE FLOODING?   This type of set up is ideal for flooding to occur. It's what we call a "training" effect. When heavy rain continues to trail over the same area again and again water will rise quickly. Here's the latest on our Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings.

REST OF THE DAY   Storm chances will diminish and the flooding waters will subside as we progress throughout the afternoon hours.

2PM: 30% storm chance

3PM: 20% storm chance

4PM: 20% storm chance in our Southeastern counties

5PM: Most of the rain across the area will wind down and clearing will take place overnight.

JOIN US  On Wave 3 news at 5pm for the latest on the afternoon flood threat and another shot at storms in the coming days. An interesting set up continues to concern me...depending on the track of an approaching low we could be looking at more of a severe weather set up to end the week rather than a flooding set up like what we're seeing today. We'll watch it closely...stay tuned!

Morning Floods

Heavy rain with over 2" in some areas caused and is still causing FLASH FLOODING in Louisville, Clark and Floyd Counties in Indiana, and Oldham County. 

Here's a picture of the flooding at U of L from Ken Conklin:

There have been reports of water rescues, stalled vehicles and road closures due to high water.

Here are some of the reports:

New Albany... GRANT LINE ROAD FLOODED NEAR VFW

Louisville... WATER RESCUE AT CORNER OF LOWELL LANE AND TYLER LANE

Highlands... 3.67 INCHES HEAVY RAIN REPORTED

Jeffersonville... 2.50 INCHES HEAVY RAIN REPORTED

St. Matthews... CAR FLOODED ON LEXINGTON ROAD