Not for awhile.
I touched based yesterday on the low that could impact us next Monday. Well, as suspected, the models continue to slow that thought down more and more...and still cannot agree on where it will "wander"?!?
The plan to continue to stick with the EURO for now due to its skill at this range of time. As we get closer, the GFS usually begins to lock onto the right idea so it will be interesting to see how it adjusts in the coming days.
Nevertheless...here is where we stand today.
- No rain through Sunday.
The CANADIAN model can just now see the start of this one (sees out to Monday) and does give at least a small shower risk, but keeps the main low still well south. Just not enough info just yet from this run to gauge if it will keep it along the coast or more it north!?
The GFS attempts to give us a sprinkle later Sunday...but overall it does not pull this low northward until next Wednesday! That is quite the delay from yesterday. And, such a delay would impact that "strong early October front" as well. Cause and effect here.
The latest EURO is just now in...and it is holding course with a low pressure arrival on Monday. Perhaps locally heavy.
TO SUM IT UP--- Warm and dry through the weekend with several 80 degree days. The plan is to stick with the EURO for now given its performance and keep the rain chance in for Monday and likely Tuesday to account for any possible delays in future model runs. After the low passes...there will not be much of a break as a cold front should arrive by that Thursday or Friday. More on that tomorrow.